On June 23, pay attention to several foreign exchange option expiries, especially for EUR/USD. Expiries around the levels of 1.1490 to 1.1500 may impact price changes, particularly with important hourly moving averages positioned between 1.1503 and 1.1515. Right now, dollar fluctuations are primarily influenced by events in the Middle East. The dollar is gaining value, but this has a limited effect on overall market risk. As a result, significant price swings may not happen.

USD/JPY Levels

Keep an eye on USD/JPY as it nears 147.00, with a significant 100-day moving average sitting at 146.78. A strong move above this level could strengthen the dollar in the coming sessions. This information highlights key technical points in both EUR/USD and USD/JPY that could be affected by upcoming FX option expiries and broader market trends. The expiries clustered around 1.1490 to 1.1500 for the euro-dollar pair and several key moving averages around 1.1503 to 1.1515 might create a soft ceiling just above 1.1490, at least for now. This close proximity of expiry interest and technical indicators may lead to some supply, but we should only expect temporary resistance unless there’s a significant shift in sentiment or data. For those trading derivatives, premiums near this strike might be more volatile, especially if the spot price stays close to this area as the New York cut approaches. Traders with positions that expire soon should reconsider their delta hedging strategies if the spot moves towards the upper end of this range. There isn’t much reason to expect a strong move in one direction without additional factors, but prices in this area could become more unpredictable during times of low liquidity.

Middle Eastern Influence on the Market

In the USD/JPY pair, the spot price continues to rise with 147.00 nearby, aligning with a longer-term trend at 146.78. If this area is cleared with strong closing prices, it could trigger bullish momentum. We are closely watching whether the 100-day moving average, often a crucial point for this pair, will serve as a strong attraction or a launchpad. If the price holds above this level late in the day, tactical buyers may seize the opportunity, particularly if implied volatility remains stable. Middle Eastern developments are slightly increasing dollar demand, more evident in the spot market than in options pricing or cross-asset volatility. Risk indicators, such as equity index futures and emerging market currencies, aren’t showing much movement. This suggests that the current price changes are based more on technical factors than on panic or significant repositioning. Thus, while price movements at these levels are worth monitoring, they do not yet indicate a major market shift. For those engaged in gamma or risk reversals, we are observing realized volatility over the past five sessions, which remains lower than implied volatility, indicating a subdued environment for volatility buyers unless unexpected macro events arise. Stay alert for any intraday reversals around 1.1500 in EUR/USD or rejections at 147.00 in USD/JPY. These events could trigger rapid adjustments among market makers, with short-dated options likely to respond accordingly. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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