The Nasdaq-100 Futures have established a strong weekly base, with a key point of control (POC) at 21,315. This level is crucial for potential market movement. Currently, prices have paused, forming a slight consolidation between 21,434 and 21,947, below the rising regression channel. Key resistance levels are noted, with the first being at 21,434. Other resistances follow at 21,497, 21,575, and 21,631. Immediate support is found at 21,315, with additional supports at 21,169 and 21,077. Below these, the price could slip to the range of 21,331 to 20,502.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

In a bullish scenario, holding at the POC could lead to long positions aiming for higher levels, with stops placed just below 21,300. On the other hand, if the price breaks and reclaims at 21,434, aggressive long entries are possible, targeting higher resistances. In a bearish scenario, failing to hold at the 21,434–21,497 zone could encourage short positions aiming for lower levels. Additionally, dropping below the POC/VWAP would confirm a downward shift, indicating lower targets. The plan for Monday involves setting pre-market alerts at these key levels. It’s important to monitor volumes at these pivotal points and apply strict risk management for each setup, adjusting to trends respecting the channel. With the Nasdaq-100 Futures firming up at 21,315, this level acts as a launch point, where recent volume and price action converge, making it significant. The price behavior indicates that market participants currently accept this as fair value. While the market tried to push higher, it hesitated between 21,434 and 21,947, showing a reluctance to commit just beneath the upward slope.

Understanding Key Price Levels

In this context, the 21,434 level should be seen not merely as resistance, but as a decision-making zone. If the price moves decisively through it, volume accumulation becomes vital. A rise without strong volume backing tends to fail. However, if market participants continue to see this area as a buying opportunity, we might see targets at 21,497, 21,575, and possibly 21,631 tested one after another. On the downside, the support at 21,315 is crucial. If it fails, a direct drop to 21,169 could follow. Should that level break quickly, the market might swiftly revisit 21,077 and potentially deepen into a broader zone near 20,502. This would indicate a broader sentiment shift, not just a short-term pullback. As we prepare for upcoming sessions, it’s vital to be reactive rather than merely anticipatory. If the market remains above 21,315 and shows strength—evidenced by repeated defenses near prior resistance—long positions may be wise, assuming stops are set just below 21,300. However, strength without lower timeframe support often results in sharp reversals. If 21,434 breaks and reclaims, quicker decisions may be necessary. However, the path upward is not completely clear. Each subsequent level is more than a target; they reflect areas where volume has built in past transactions. Expect resistance at these points unless strong momentum emerges. Conversely, sharp rejection or lack of follow-through in the 21,434–21,497 range indicates buyer caution. Such rejections could trigger short scalps, with expectations to move through thinner volume areas below the POC. Prices below both the POC and the VWAP, especially with increasing volume, suggest that value is recognized lower, often foreshadowing quick downward expansions. Looking ahead to early-week execution, it’s essential to do more than mark levels—set alerts and triggers in advance during pre-market prep. Pay close attention to how futures behave as they approach or rebound from these levels, and align those behaviors with volume patterns to gain confidence in directional stances. Regardless of strategy, the focus should be on adaptability rather than sticking to a single directional bias. Observing how the regression channel is respected or broken will be significant. Continuously assess move velocities with volume and keep risk settings specific to each position. With a solid foundation, execution and consistency will distinguish performance from mere market noise in the week ahead. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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