Attention in London is shifting to platinum group metals as the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) prepares updated platinum market forecasts. Commerzbank expects WPIC to forecast a fourth straight annual supply deficit this year.
The forecast deficit is expected to be smaller than in previous years due to weaker demand from the automotive sector and for platinum jewellery. Above-ground inventories are expected to fall further.
Current above-ground stocks cover only four months of demand. Four years ago, stocks covered about one year of consumption.
WPIC is expected to keep forecasting medium-term supply shortfalls versus demand. This would imply continued inventory drawdowns.
The article notes it was produced using an artificial intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.
With the World Platinum Investment Council set to release new forecasts, we are positioning for a bullish move in platinum. The market is anticipating a fourth consecutive annual supply deficit, a trend which has consistently tightened fundamentals. This continued shortfall suggests upward price pressure is building.
The key statistic is the rapid decline in above-ground platinum stocks. These inventories now cover only four months of demand, a sharp drop from the one-year cushion we saw back in 2022. As these stockpiles shrink further, any unexpected supply disruption or demand spike will have a much larger impact on prices.
For traders, this outlook supports buying call options on platinum futures. This strategy offers a defined risk while providing significant upside exposure if the WPIC confirms a sustained deficit and the price rallies. We are looking at July and October 2026 contracts to capture potential post-announcement momentum.
Recent supply-side news from South Africa reinforces this view. Data from April 2026 showed that persistent energy grid instability led to a 4% year-over-year decline in refined platinum output from the country’s major producers. Looking back, this continues the pattern of operational challenges we observed throughout 2025, which limited the industry’s ability to respond to market needs.
On the demand side, investment interest is returning. We have seen net inflows into physically-backed platinum ETFs increase by over 200,000 ounces since March 2026, reversing the outflows from late 2025. This shows that larger investors are already moving to build positions ahead of a potential price increase.
A sustained deficit will also be fueled by growing demand from the hydrogen sector. Government subsidies in both Europe and the U.S., which were expanded in the first quarter of 2026, are accelerating the build-out of green hydrogen facilities that use platinum as a catalyst. This represents a significant long-term demand driver that the market is just beginning to price in.
