During the European session, there are a few minor updates expected, including the final Swiss Q2 GDP and the final Eurozone consumer confidence report. These numbers are unlikely to have a significant impact on the market. In the American session, we will see the second estimate of US Q2 GDP and US Jobless Claims. The GDP data will probably be overlooked since it reflects a past period. However, the jobless claims figures could sway the market, especially if there are unexpected changes.

Expectations for Jobless Claims

Initial jobless claims are expected to be 230,000, a slight drop from the previous figure of 235,000. Continuing claims are projected to be 1,970,000, compared to the earlier 1,972,000. This data usually shows a “low firing, low hiring” labor market, mainly due to earlier tariff issues. As these issues have eased, the job market might become more active. Recent regional surveys reported increased activity in August, which could influence jobless claims, as well as ADP and NFP data. Today, we are closely monitoring US Jobless Claims data, with the market anticipating a figure around 230K. This number could indicate whether the labor market is finally changing after a slow first half. Any big surprise could move the markets, offering opportunities for short-term trading strategies.

Market Implications of Jobless Claims

The “low firing, low hiring” trend we saw earlier in 2025, mainly due to tariff disputes, created uncertainty for many businesses. With those disputes resolved in June, we are looking for signs of renewed confidence. If jobless claims drop significantly below 220K, it could point to increased hiring, mirroring the strong labor market of 2023 when claims consistently stayed under that level. Implied volatility for short-term options on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices has risen ahead of this data release, indicating the market expects a significant price change. Traders who believe that the actual market move will be less dramatic than anticipated might consider strategies like selling strangles to earn premium. Conversely, if initial claims rise above 245K, it would challenge the idea that we have moved past the worst of the economic issues. Such a spike would raise worries that the economic slowdown is worsening. This would signal to traders to think about buying protective puts to guard against a potential downturn in the following weeks. It’s important to remember that today’s jobless claims are just a preview for the bigger report next week, the Non-Farm Payrolls on September 5th. A strong or weak figure today will lead traders to quickly adjust their positions and expectations for that more detailed report. Any trades made now should consider the potential for even more volatility next Friday. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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