On June 17, 2025, there are no significant FX option expirations to note. The focus of the day will be on potential risks, especially regarding international politics and economic data. Former President Trump left the G7 summit early to hold an emergency meeting with the National Security Council. They will discuss the US position on the Iran-Israel conflict. Later, the US will release retail sales data. Right now, markets are cautious, with US futures slightly down. Major currencies aren’t moving much, reflecting this uncertainty. Traders should be aware that today lacks major technical triggers in the options market to drive prices sharply in either direction. There are no notable expirations to provide support or resistance, making markets more vulnerable to outside influences, especially political news or changes in economic conditions. Trump’s early departure from the G7 and shift to national security discussions indicate uncertainty in US foreign policy. With Iran and Israel involved, the tension rises. This can impact oil markets first, but volatility can spread quickly to other areas, especially when liquidity is low and conviction is lacking. While the US retail sales data usually isn’t as impactful as job numbers or inflation rates, today’s quiet market makes it more significant. A surprising result could ignite movement, not because it’s groundbreaking, but because the market is currently quiet. The slightly negative futures support the idea that investors are being cautious. Major currency pairs remain stable, indicating the FX market is observing rather than reacting. This stillness can be worrisome for those using short-term strategies—when movement does occur, it might not be smooth. We shouldn’t expect tight prices throughout the day. With no key strike levels, intraday momentum will likely depend on how news develops and how retail sales data turns out. If you’re holding near-the-money positions, especially in short maturities, keep an eye on implied volatility for any changes. Volatility can shift quickly when there aren’t many supporting factors. Without typical expiration pressures, spot prices might test ranges more freely, but we should be careful not to overstate these movements. A jump in prices doesn’t guarantee lasting change. Instead of reacting to every piece of news, it’s better to observe how the market responds. If we see a quick reaction followed by stability, it may indicate that sentiment isn’t strong enough to change the overall trend. Conversely, increased volumes after the data release would signal that views are shifting. Today isn’t about trying to predict direction solely based on sentiment. Instead, we should get ready for moments when volatility rises—not because of technical factors but because the market is reacting to a lack of structure. When typical anchors are missing, prices can move more freely, but they can also reverse just as quickly. Trade wisely.

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