The EURUSD has experienced a steady rise since May 12. It jumped from a low of 1.1065 to a high of 1.18266, gaining 761 pips or 6.88% over 37 trading days. In 2025, it increased by 13.78% year-to-date, mainly due to the dollar’s weakness and worries about U.S. debt, which shifted global investments. Technical analysis shows that the EURUSD has remained above its 100-hour moving average since June 23, supporting a bullish outlook. Currently at 1.17487, this moving average was tested today, but the pair climbed back to 1.1781. Staying above this support level demonstrates buyers’ strength in the market.

Future Trajectory And Critical Support

Looking ahead, the 100-hour moving average is crucial short-term support. If the price falls below it, the current buyer-driven trend could change. However, the upward momentum might persist, with key targets at 1.1808 and 1.18266. Surpassing these levels may lead to 1.1909, a peak last seen in July and September 2021. A weakening dollar can benefit U.S. companies abroad but may pose challenges for European firms in the U.S. market. Current market activity shows a strong preference for the euro. Traders are actively selling the dollar in favor of what they see as a more stable investment. Since late June, the EURUSD has consistently remained above the 100-hour moving average, suggesting a solid support level around 1.17487. This level is now a tactical line, reinforced each time the price bounces back rather than breaks down. We are closely monitoring this technical setup. When a currency pair stabilizes near a clearly defined moving average, it often signals broader trends if the macroeconomic backdrop supports it. The sustained support suggests ongoing buying interest, even when prices dip, indicating an appetite for purchasing. The bounce back to 1.1781 underscores the importance of this short-term support.

Resistance Levels And Trading Strategy

The next resistance levels are clear. The first is at 1.1808, a minor barrier that might encourage attempts to break through during high-volume trading. Beyond that, the swing high of 1.18266 is another focus for traders this week. If the price breaks through these levels, 1.1909 will be the next tested resistance, a level not seen in over three years. The euro’s strength remains anchored in a fragile dollar situation, which is already reflected in market prices. Now, focus shifts to the eurozone’s performance and the Federal Reserve’s decisions. For now, price direction is primarily influenced by developments in the U.S. Short-term strategies depend on the movement relative to the 100-hour moving average. If the price remains above that level, it indicates sustained demand and might attract more buying. However, if the price convincingly drops below that average—with sustained movement and volume—reassessment of our strategy will be necessary. Monitoring price behavior around 1.1808 and 1.18266 will be crucial. The response at these levels—whether there’s a strong rejection or continued push—will be informative. We prefer responding to the market rather than predicting it. The wider economic implications of a weaker dollar are significant. Large multinationals are adapting, but this shift also challenges exporters in Europe, increasing their need for efficiency and protective measures. Currently, price direction is driven by broader economic trends, not speculation. This clarity allows for more straightforward trading setups. Near-term actions should align with key data points, and we will adjust our strategies to market movements, not the surrounding noise. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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