Markets are positioned for a 25bp European Central Bank rate rise on Thursday, which would be the first hike since September 2023 and is described as fully priced. Attention then shifts to the ECB’s guidance on follow-up moves and whether it signals scope for further tightening.
The view presented is that a July back-to-back increase would be premature, with another 25bp hike instead pencilled in for September. Beyond that, lower oil prices are expected to ease inflationary pressure, keeping policy from moving into restrictive territory and leaving room for rate cuts in 2027. For context, the ECB raised rates by 4.5 percentage points in the previous hiking cycle, though the current backdrop is framed by long-term inflation expectations anchored near target, alongside subdued growth and strained public finances.
Focus on Forward Guidance After Fully Priced Hike
We see the 25 basis point rate hike from the European Central Bank this Thursday as a foregone conclusion. The market has fully priced this in, especially after the latest Eurostat data showed May inflation holding stubbornly at 2.7%. The real play isn’t the hike itself, but the language used by the ECB President in the press conference that follows.
We believe a follow-up hike in July is unlikely, and any signal confirming this pause would be a dovish surprise for some. This could flatten the short-end of the yield curve, making it wise to look at options on Euribor futures that would profit from stable rates through the summer. The focus will then immediately shift to the September meeting, which remains a live possibility for another move.
Short and Shallow Tightening Cycle Expected
The ECB’s hands are tied by a mixed economic picture, with the HCOB Flash Eurozone Composite PMI at a modest 52.5 showing growth isn’t exactly booming. Furthermore, the recent drop in Brent crude prices to below $80 a barrel gives policymakers reason to believe inflation will cool on its own. This backdrop reinforces our view that the tightening cycle will be short and shallow.
Unlike the aggressive 2022-2023 cycle where rates rose by 450 basis points, this environment of anchored inflation expectations and strained government budgets calls for a much lighter touch. For those with a longer horizon, this outlook opens up opportunities to position for potential rate cuts in 2027. This could involve looking at receiving fixed on longer-dated interest rate swaps or buying call options on rate-sensitive indices.
