European Central Bank (ECB) member Martin Kocher shared that they are on track for a stable period ahead. However, he also mentioned that there is still significant uncertainty, even as recent data since September shows a small improvement. At the time of reporting, the EUR/USD was up 0.05% at 1.1570, showing little change after Kocher’s comments. The euro was strong against major currencies, particularly the New Zealand Dollar.

Euro Gains Against Major Currencies

Today, the euro’s value changed as follows: it rose 0.06% against the USD, 0.13% against the EUD, and 0.23% against the GBP. Its performance against the CHF was neutral. Market analysis indicates that the euro is gaining stability around 0.8800 against the GBP. While the ECB’s current position offers some reassurance, it will take significant conditions to ease policies further. In contrast, China’s manufacturing sector is struggling, facing a seventh month of PMI contraction. Currency movements show caution in the market due to uncertainties. The EUR/USD remains above 1.1650, while the GBP/USD is waiting for movement close to five-month highs. Performance varies across different currency pairs, with the yen appearing weak due to uncertainties about its central bank. The European Central Bank appears confident that it can control inflation for the time being. With Eurozone inflation for September 2025 at a stable 2.1%, just above the target, it suggests that the ECB plans to keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year. This stability means traders should anticipate less action in response to ECB policy changes in the coming weeks.

Opportunities In Currency Crosses

This confidence from officials, along with warnings about high uncertainty, creates a unique setting for options traders. The VStoxx index, which measures Eurozone equity market volatility, has been around a low of 14, signaling complacency. Traders should consider strategies that can take advantage of this low volatility while being prepared for any sudden market shifts. The small reaction in the EUR/USD indicates that the market is more focused on what the US Federal Reserve will do next. With US Core PCE inflation remaining high at 2.8% in the third quarter of 2025, the Fed is likely to keep a hawkish stance, more so than the ECB. Thus, the upcoming US jobs report will likely have a greater impact on the EUR/USD pair than these ECB comments. We’re seeing clear opportunities in currency crosses, especially with the euro strong against the New Zealand and Australian dollars. Today’s data showed that China’s manufacturing PMI has contracted for the seventh consecutive month, which is dragging down these commodity-linked currencies. This trend supports a long position in EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD. Looking back from our current perspective in late 2025, this period of stability sharply contrasts the aggressive rate hikes in 2022 and 2023, during which the ECB had to rapidly raise rates to address soaring inflation. The current decision to hold suggests that, for now, the central bank’s battle is won, changing the trading strategy. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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