MicroStrategy is the biggest corporate holder of Bitcoin, yet in 2025, there’s a gap between its stock performance and Bitcoin’s value. Even though Bitcoin has reached new highs, MicroStrategy’s stock (MSTR) continues to struggle, signaling deep-rooted technical issues. Elliott Wave analysis points out important support levels and possible downside targets. Since hitting $543 in November 2024, MSTR has been on a downward trend, while Bitcoin thrives. MSTR’s bearish pattern since November includes breaking the February 2025 low, confirming a double three correction. Wave analysis shows that after completing wave “w” in February 2025 and a higher bounce in wave “x,” wave “y” is currently developing. The focus is now on wave ((W)), which has hit the 61.8-76.4% Fibonacci zone. This suggests a potential short-term bounce before the downtrend resumes. The projected turnaround zone is between $138 and $63. Once this zone is reached, a strong upward reaction is expected. Traders should look for short-term bounces as selling opportunities, while investors may wait for this extreme area before making purchases. The Elliott Wave strategy and proprietary systems can assist with timing entries for future rallies. As of November 11, 2025, the gap between MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Bitcoin is a significant indicator. Bitcoin has surged past $120,000 to set new all-time highs this quarter, but MSTR stock hasn’t kept up. This confirms the ongoing technical weakness since it peaked at $543 a year ago. MSTR holds over 250,000 bitcoins, but the market is undervaluing this asset. We anticipate a short-term bounce, creating clear opportunities for derivative traders. Now is not the time to buy calls; instead, consider this a chance to sell into strength using bearish strategies like bear call spreads or selling out-of-the-money calls. Implied volatility has stayed high, around 95% for near-term options, making selling premium an appealing strategy. Once this brief rally ends, the stock is likely to continue its downward trend toward the equal legs target, keeping the $138 – $63 zone in view as we enter the first quarter of 2026. Concerns about the company’s multi-billion dollar debt are the main issue, overshadowing even record Bitcoin prices. For long-term investors, buying long-dated puts might be a way to prepare for this ongoing correction into next year. Short interest in the stock has risen above 20% of the float, reflecting a growing belief that the company’s debt is a significant weakness. This gap between the stock value and its underlying assets is the main reason for our bearish outlook.

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