Morgan Stanley believes that Google will continue to lead the search market, even after a recent antitrust ruling. The changes resulting from this ruling are expected to have a minimal effect on Google’s strong position. Google will still control its Chrome browser and Android operating system since the court did not require a breakup. It is likely that Google will keep paying Apple to remain the default search engine on Safari, although the terms of these contracts may change. Morgan Stanley does not view the requirement for Google to share some data with competitors as a significant threat. Competing with Google effectively would need a huge investment due to Google’s unmatched size, broad reach, and user data, along with its rapid improvements in personalized AI products. The recent antitrust ruling has cleared up a lot of uncertainty around GOOGL. This could lead to a drop in implied volatility, which had risen to over 40% before the ruling, much higher than the 52-week average of 28%. Such a situation favors strategies that benefit from falling volatility, like selling puts or credit spreads. Since the court did not order a breakup, Google’s strong ecosystem of Chrome and Android stays in place. The company’s search market share has remained around 88% in the first half of 2025, indicating little immediate risk to its core business. This stability is expected to support the stock price near its levels before the ruling. Even with new data-sharing requirements, it remains very challenging for rivals to compete. Effective competition requires significant financial investments and infrastructure to match Google’s scale and user data flow. The rapid development of Google’s personalized AI tools further strengthens its competitive advantage, making a major loss of market share unlikely. We can compare this situation to the Microsoft antitrust case from the early 2000s. After that case ended, worries about a breakup diminished, and Microsoft’s key products—Windows and Office—continued to thrive for many years. We might be entering a similar phase of stability for GOOGL’s stock. Given the reduced risks, selling out-of-the-money puts to earn premiums appears to be a smart strategy for the coming weeks. Those expecting a rebound might consider bull call spreads to achieve modest gains while keeping costs down. The main idea here is that while the catastrophic risks have lifted, the stock might not be on the verge of a significant breakout.

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