The Nasdaq 100 is gaining momentum for a possible breakout above 25,392, aiming for new highs as demand for tech remains strong and liquidity pressures continue. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has resulted in a data blackout, increasing uncertainty and market volatility. Despite this, the index is still trending positively, supported by H4 Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), which are short-term support areas but could lead to declines if they break. **Approaching Record Highs** The index is getting close to its record highs while the U.S. government is partially shut down, pausing the release of economic data. Market activity is driven by price action and sentiment, as no new economic updates are available. The bullish trend is supported by steady corporate earnings and easing trade tensions. However, the absence of fresh data invites the possibility of volatility spikes. Currently, the Nasdaq 100 is stabilizing below its peak at 25,392.88, held up by two H4 FVGs. These areas are viewed as potential support zones, but if they do not hold, the market could decline. If the upper FVG (25,289–25,239) remains intact, there’s a chance of reaching new highs, targeting 25,700–25,800. If both FVGs fail, the downside could drop to 25,152 or even lower. Right now, the market is influenced mainly by technical factors due to the lack of economic data. FVGs are crucial for determining market direction, and any break could trigger significant movements. In this data void, price action provides clues for future trends, indicating that tension is building for the next major shift. With the U.S. government shutdown now in its fourth week, we lack key economic data like CPI and retail sales. The Nasdaq 100 is stable near its all-time high, but this stability is precarious, relying more on technical support than solid fundamentals. Without information, we must focus on price action and institutional trends for insight. **Context & Implications** To provide context, recent private-sector data has been mixed, adding to the uncertainty. Last week’s ADP private payroll report indicated a surprising addition of 195,000 jobs in September, explaining some of the market’s persistent optimism. However, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey showed a significant drop, as households worry about the shutdown’s effects, indicating that underlying risks are rising. Historically, markets often overlook political standoffs, assuming a resolution is certain. For example, during the 16-day shutdown in October 2013, the S&P 500 actually increased by over 3% in that time. This history is likely encouraging investors to maintain their positions, betting that a future resolution will spark a relief rally. For bullish options strategies, the focus should be on the Fair Value Gaps at 25,289 and 25,212. As long as the Nasdaq 100 stays above these levels, buying call options or maintaining long futures positions is advisable, using these areas for risk management. A clear break above the 25,392 all-time high would signal an opportunity to add to long positions, possibly pushing shorts to cover and accelerating gains. On the flip side, we must be ready for a potential downturn if institutional support weakens. Closing below the 25,212 level would be a serious warning, indicating that sellers are gaining control. In this case, buying protective puts with strike prices around 25,150 or 25,000 could provide a valuable hedge against a quick correction once economic data is finally released. Given the data blackout, volatility remains the biggest uncertainty, and implied volatility on options is likely high. The Fair Value Gaps will be the key battleground; maintaining levels indicates strength, while a break suggests a retreat. Until Washington reopens and data flow resumes, our trading strategies will rely heavily on these important technical levels. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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