Nasdaq March futures are currently trading within a consistent range. The market is moving between a central pivot at 25,405 and resistance levels between 25,794 and 26,036. Despite attempts to surpass the first resistance at 25,794, the market has not fully accepted the higher levels yet. The market framework remains stable as we assess price behavior around the key levels of pivot and resistance. If prices hold above the second resistance at 26,036, we could then look at higher levels between 26,231 and 26,703. However, if the market drops below 25,794, it may lead to shifts back towards lower levels ranging from 25,186 to 24,625.

Intraday Market Structure

On a 15-minute chart, we see the market stalling just below the micro levels of 25,739 to 25,879. Prices returned to the central pivot at 25,514. Staying above 25,514 could align with daily patterns, signaling another attempt to move up. Conversely, falling below this level could bring attention to lower ranges between 25,442 and 24,924, indicating a shift back to earlier structures. Overall, market behavior remains heavily influenced by acceptance and rejection at key levels. As we approach the end of 2025, the Nasdaq is showing mixed signals, moving between important levels without clear direction. The price is caught between the pivot at 25,405 and resistance near 26,036. This uncertainty advises patience, as the market hasn’t confirmed a move toward higher levels. The economic backdrop contributes to this indecisiveness. While Q3 2025 GDP showed strong growth at 2.5%, the November CPI data revealed that core inflation sits at 2.8%, which keeps the Federal Reserve cautious. The Fed maintained interest rates at 3.75% in mid-December, and the market is awaiting clearer signals for 2026, resulting in the current sideways movement. With low trading volume typical of the year’s final week, we must be cautious about false breakouts. The rally seen after December 19 has stalled below 25,794, indicating that buyers are still not strong enough. This highlights the importance of waiting for a clear move instead of guessing in these thin market conditions.

Market Sentiment and Strategy

For bullish traders, the plan is to wait for a confirmed break and hold above 26,036. A successful move here would indicate that the market has accepted a higher price range, targeting levels around 26,231 to 26,703. Until then, jumping into a long position would be risky. On the other hand, a bearish approach becomes more appealing if the market falls below the central pivot at 25,405. A sustained drop below this level would show that the recent attempt to move up has failed completely, shifting focus to support zones between 25,186 and 24,625. Market caution is also visible in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which has increased to 17 from earlier lows in the month. This suggests that traders are buying protection against possible downturns, aligning with recent struggles to achieve higher prices. The expected “Santa Claus rally” in previous weeks seems to have lost momentum near this critical resistance. For now, the market structure remains fluid, with the potential to break in either direction. We’ll need to watch price reactions around the intraday pivot of 25,514 for short-term insights. Our role is to observe these key levels and respond to the market’s actions, rather than forces trades when no clear opportunity exists. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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