A national security meeting led by Trump lasted over an hour, focusing on a possible strike on Iran. The gathering featured a range of viewpoints, showing that participants have different opinions. While the specifics of the meeting are not public, it indicates that the US is nearing a decision on how to act toward Iran. Such decisions could have significant international consequences.

Internal Dynamics Within The Administration

This meeting highlights the clash between aggressive and cautious approaches within the US administration. A final decision has not yet been reached, suggesting ongoing discussions and careful thought. The current situation creates pressure for decision-making within the US administration, with differing opinions becoming more visible. Hawks are pressing for quick action, while others call for patience and a reevaluation of intelligence. The meeting lasted over an hour, signaling serious issues and a lack of agreement, which often complicates clear policy direction. These internal disagreements do not help stabilize expectations for the market, which seeks clarity. Recent comments from Pompeo and Esper have leaned towards escalation under certain conditions. In contrast, Milley’s recent statements, while firm, have been careful not to imply immediate actions. This mixed guidance is essential for our positioning and risk assessments.

Navigating Volatility And Strategic Adjustments

When decision-makers face uncertainty and conflicting advice, timelines stretch, and the chances of sharp, pivotal events increase. This situation provides an opportunity for careful adjustments and staggered positions to reduce exposure to sudden surprises. It’s safer to expect volatility, rather than a specific direction, to influence price movements in the near term. Instead of guessing the final outcome of US plans, we adjust by paying attention to the frequency and tone of public briefings. These updates often change before any action takes place, and shifts in language can be more telling than prepared statements. Any sudden uptick in activity at regional bases or increased media appearances by key military figures would require rapid assessment of our hedges. We’ve seen similar signs before; it typically starts with heightened briefings followed by attempts to manage public relations. For those involved in directional exposure, it’s best to keep biases minimal and favor strategies that benefit from realized volatility. Given the long lead times between decisions and actions, it would be unwise to confidently establish medium-term exposures. We stay focused, not solely on headlines, but on the timing and frequency of updates. Traders know that a single official photo or brief press comment—if poorly timed—can lead to significant shifts in volatility curves, regardless of fundamental implications. It’s wise to maintain broad risk tolerances during these periods and wait for clearer information before reacting to major macro changes. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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