National Bank of Canada economists expect Canada’s February Labour Force Survey to show employment rising by 10K after a decline in January. They project the unemployment rate at 6.7%, up by 0.2 percentage points. They expect the participation rate to edge up to 65.2% from 65.0%. This follows a 0.4 percentage point fall in January.

Labour Market Expectations

The January merchandise trade balance is expected to improve as exports rise and imports fall. The trade deficit is forecast to narrow to C$0.25 billion. Exports are expected to be supported by higher prices for some raw materials, including gold. Separately, manufacturing sales are forecast to drop 3.3% month on month in January. The decline in manufacturing sales is linked to falls in transportation equipment and machinery. The article notes it was produced using an AI tool and reviewed by an editor. We are seeing a familiar pattern develop when we look back at the economic forecasts from early 2025. At that time, we were anticipating a modest job gain for February but a rising unemployment rate due to more people looking for work. This dynamic of a softening labour market is intensifying today.

Market Implications For Rates

The latest Labour Force Survey data for February 2026 showed a net loss of 5,000 jobs, which was a significant miss from expectations of a small gain. This pushed the unemployment rate up to 6.9%, a full two-year high, as the participation rate climbed to 65.4%. This confirms the trend of underlying weakness that was becoming apparent this time last year. This sustained labour market cooling significantly increases the probability of a Bank of Canada rate cut within the next quarter. We are now seeing the market price in a greater than 70% chance of a 25 basis point cut by the July meeting, a sharp increase from just a month ago. Therefore, positions that benefit from falling short-term interest rates, such as buying call options on BAX futures, should be considered. Consequently, the outlook for the Canadian dollar has weakened, with rate differentials poised to favour the US dollar. The USD/CAD exchange rate has already broken above 1.37, and a move towards 1.39 now seems likely if economic data continues to disappoint. Traders should look at buying put options on the Canadian dollar to hedge or speculate on further downside. The sharp drop in manufacturing sales seen in January 2025 also serves as a cautionary tale for our equity markets today. We have just seen preliminary January 2026 manufacturing sales data point to a 2.8% contraction, led by weakness in the auto sector. Hedging broad market exposure by purchasing puts on the S&P/TSX 60 index may be a prudent strategy against a potential slowdown in corporate earnings. However, the strength in gold-linked exports noted in the 2025 forecast highlights a potential area of opportunity. With ongoing global uncertainty and the prospect of lower interest rates, gold prices have remained firm, recently trading above $2,150 per ounce. Traders could explore call options on gold mining stocks as a potential hedge against broader market weakness. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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