Nvidia shares rose more than 2% in Thursday’s premarket after the US President Donald Trump summit with China. If gains hold, it would be the seventh straight up day for NVDA.
The US Commerce Department approved ten Chinese firms to import Nvidia’s H200 AI chip, plus some Asian distributors. US Retail Sales for April fell from 1.6% MoM to 0.5% MoM, matching forecasts.
DJIA futures rose 0.9% premarket, S&P 500 futures gained 0.3%, and NASDAQ futures fell 0.2%. Nvidia is seeking to rebuild China market share after multiple rounds of US trade curbs.
Before the Washington restrictions, Nvidia held a 95% share of China’s AI chip market. The H200 is based on the H100 platform with higher memory and bandwidth, while Blackwell chips remain restricted for China.
The new clearance allows Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance and JD.com, plus Foxconn and Lenovo, to buy H200 chips. Purchases are capped at 75,000 chips per company.
NVDA previously peaked at $216.83 on 27 April, then pulled back to about $195 before breaking above that high on Monday. The next test area is near $240, with support at $216.83, $211, and $185 to $191, while the weekly RSI is 68.
Given the approval for Nvidia to resume significant sales to key Chinese firms, we see this as a strong bullish signal for the coming weeks. The stock’s momentum, now on its seventh consecutive day of gains, is backed by a fundamental improvement in its revenue outlook from the massive Chinese market. Derivative traders should position for a continued move higher, targeting the trendline resistance near the $240 level.
A direct strategy would be to buy call options with June or July 2026 expiration dates to capitalize on this expected upward move. We believe strike prices of $225 or $230 offer a compelling way to participate in the rally toward the $240 target. This approach leverages the positive news while defining the maximum risk to the premium paid for the options.
For a more conservative play, selling cash-secured puts or constructing a bull put spread below the key support level of $216.83 could generate income. This strategy profits from the stock staying above this technical floor, benefiting from both time decay and the stock’s upward drift. We saw a similar, though smaller, stock rally in late 2025 when the first H200 case-by-case approvals were announced, suggesting a historical precedent for this type of news.
This access to China’s market is critical, as recent industry reports show Nvidia’s market share there fell from over 90% to around 55% in the last few years amidst competition from domestic firms. While the broader market shows some indecision, with today’s April retail sales figures slowing to 0.5% growth, the company-specific news for Nvidia should outweigh macro concerns. According to Q1 2026 data from the Semiconductor Industry Association, China’s demand for AI processing power continues to grow over 30% annually, underscoring the importance of these sales.
However, we must note that the weekly Relative Strength Index is at 68, nearing overbought territory, suggesting the rally is becoming mature. Implied volatility on near-term options has also risen, making new long positions more expensive. This indicates that while the path seems upward, the stock may be prone to a brief pullback after such a strong run-up.
