OCBC’s Christopher Wong reports that the earlier fall in USD/KRW has paused, with bearish momentum easing and the RSI rising from oversold levels. He says a rebound is possible towards 1492, with support seen at 1460/64.
He adds that two-way trading remains active and points to short-term bullish technical signals in USD/KRW, USD/SGD and USD/TWD. He notes that near-term risk may lessen, while any breakthrough in ceasefire talks could lift risk appetite.
Usdkrw Technical Setup
The report states that a shift towards positive sentiment could support a proxy sell-rally trade in USD/KRW. It adds that the timing depends on how long it takes for the US or Iran to change stance in ceasefire discussions.
The article says it was produced with the help of an artificial intelligence tool and checked by an editor. It is attributed to the FXStreet Insights Team, described as journalists selecting market observations and adding analysis from internal and external sources.
We are seeing the recent decline in the dollar-won pair halt near the 1460/64 support level, which is holding firm for now. Technical indicators like a fading bearish momentum and an RSI climbing out of oversold territory suggest a short-term bounce is possible. This creates an environment where trading both sides of the market could be profitable in the immediate future.
This potential for a rebound toward the 1492 level is supported by recent US economic data. The latest US Core PCE data for March 2026 came in slightly above expectations at 2.9%, which has delayed market forecasts for a Federal Reserve rate cut. This fundamental backdrop provides a reason for near-term dollar strength, making strategies like buying short-dated USD/KRW call options worth considering.
Geopolitical Risk And Strategy
The main factor preventing a larger move down is the ongoing geopolitical tension, as talks between the US and Iran reportedly remain stalled. This uncertainty keeps a risk premium priced into the market, supporting the dollar as a safe haven. We should monitor diplomatic headlines closely, as any sudden breakthrough could trigger a rapid shift in sentiment.
Once this risk factor diminishes, the underlying fundamentals of the Korean economy should reassert themselves. We saw a similar pattern in the third quarter of 2025, where a geopolitical spike was quickly reversed once the situation calmed down. South Korea’s recent trade surplus for March 2026, which widened to $5.2 billion on strong exports, highlights the fundamental strength that could drive the won higher later on.
Therefore, the immediate strategy could involve positioning for this technical rebound from the 1460/64 support area. However, we should be prepared to pivot quickly and establish short positions, perhaps through put options, once there are clear signs of a de-escalation. A positive turn in global risk sentiment will be the key catalyst for selling into any USD/KRW rally.
