Oil prices jumped on renewed US–Iran tension before retreating, yet supply concerns persist and any peace deal is viewed as fragile. Rystad Energy has warned prices could reach $150 a barrel, reinforcing the market’s sensitivity to disruption. In the US, tight product balances add to the risk backdrop, with unfinished oil stocks at their lowest level since 1997, a constraint that could curb the current pace of refining.
Inventory data point to ongoing drawdowns. The US has logged seven consecutive weeks of crude oil inventory declines, while product stocks have fallen for nine weeks running. In pricing, WTI six-month forward contracts stand at $80.95, sitting below May’s high of $87.80 yet still above the $75 lows seen across March and April.
Ongoing Geopolitical Risks and Supply Constraints
We are watching the renewed tensions in the Middle East very closely, as any disruption could have an immediate impact on oil supply. The market is already tight, which makes it highly sensitive to geopolitical news. This suggests a bias towards higher prices in the near term.
The latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) report confirmed this tightness, showing U.S. crude inventories falling by another 3.1 million barrels last week. This extends the trend of inventory drawdowns and keeps stockpiles below their five-year average for this time of year. With unfinished oil stocks at multi-decade lows, refiners have less cushion to increase output for the summer driving season.
Robust Demand and Strategic Positioning in Volatile Markets
On the demand side, we see no signs of slowing down, which supports higher prices. Chinese customs data for May showed oil imports reaching a new record high of 11.5 million barrels per day. This robust global demand is colliding with a constrained supply picture.
Given this environment, we believe it is prudent to position for a potential price spike in the coming weeks. Buying out-of-the-money call options on WTI or Brent for August and September expirations offers a cost-effective way to gain upside exposure. Implied volatility in the oil market has ticked up to over 35%, reflecting this growing uncertainty.
This situation feels similar to the market conditions of early 2022, when a geopolitical event rapidly repriced the entire energy complex. While WTI forward prices are still below their recent highs, the combination of low inventories and geopolitical risk makes the market vulnerable to a sharp upward move. Therefore, holding some form of upside protection or speculative position seems wise.
