UK headline CPI rose 3.0% year on year in February, unchanged from January, according to the ONS. This matched the market forecast and stayed above the Bank of England’s 2.0% target.
Core CPI rose 3.2% year on year, up from 3.1% in January and above the 3.1% forecast. Monthly CPI was 0.4% in February versus -0.5% in January, in line with consensus.
After the release, GBP/USD was down 0.14% on the day at 1.3390. Earlier, the ONS was due to publish the data at 07:00 GMT.
Before the release, forecasts expected headline CPI at 3.0% year on year and 0.4% month on month. Core CPI was expected at 3.1% year on year and 0.5% month on month, after -0.6% previously.
The BoE’s MPC voted 9-0 to keep the bank rate at 3.75% after a 25 basis point cut in December. The BoE projected CPI near 3% in Q2 and 3.5% in Q3, while implied rates suggested a little more than 67 basis points of tightening this year.
GBP/USD reference levels cited were 1.3200, 1.3010, 1.3495, 1.3574 and 1.3868. Technical readings referenced RSI below 47 and ADX near 30.
We remember this time last year when stubborn 3.0% inflation was the main concern, keeping the Bank of England on a hawkish footing. The landscape has now shifted dramatically, with the latest headline CPI print for February 2026 coming in at just 2.1% year-over-year. This confirms the disinflationary trend we have been tracking for months and brings inflation much closer to the Bank’s target.
This shift completely changes the outlook for interest rates, contrasting with the rate hike expectations of early 2025 when the Bank Rate was 3.75%. With the Bank Rate now cut to 3.00% and recent GDP data showing a slight contraction, the market is pricing in at least one more rate cut this year. This suggests traders should consider positioning for a continued dovish stance through interest rate swaps or by buying Sterling Overnight Index Average (SONIA) futures.
Consequently, the Pound Sterling is under pressure, trading near 1.2850 in contrast to the 1.3390 level seen around this time last year. The dovish pivot from the Bank of England makes the pound less attractive, especially as other central banks maintain higher rates for longer. For the coming weeks, strategies like buying GBP/USD put options or selling call spreads could be used to hedge against or profit from further downside potential.
While the downward direction for rates seems clear, the timing of the next Bank of England move creates uncertainty which could lead to short-term volatility spikes. We saw implied volatility on sterling options rise ahead of the last Monetary Policy Committee meeting, a trend that is likely to continue into April. Traders could look at buying straddles on GBP pairs ahead of the next rate decision to capitalize on any sharp market moves.
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