The OPEC Secretary-General has indicated that there have been no recent changes in supply or market conditions, meaning no extra measures are needed. Crude oil prices are rising due to worries about possible supply disruptions. The daily chart shows strong upward movement above the 200-day moving average of $68.47. This rise is above previous limits and supports a bullish trend.

Today’s Trading Actions

Today’s trading saw prices break above the 61.8% retracement of the 2025 trading range, currently around $70.96, boosting positive momentum. Crude oil is trading at $72.91, which is a gain of $4.09 or 5.94% for the day. It reached a peak of $77.57, the highest level since January 20. The annual high of $80.73 was set on January 15. Immediate support is found at the April 2 high of $72.22. If prices fall below this, they could head toward the 61.8% retracement at $70.96. Current data suggests that supply fundamentals are stable, according to Al Ghais, which reduces the need for further intervention. However, the market is reacting differently as prices continue to rise. The price movement has moved comfortably above a historically key level—the 200-day moving average—which has shifted from being a ceiling to a minor support at $68.47 amidst climbing prices. Now that prices have closed above the 61.8% retracement, the next short-term level to watch is around $72.22. This area, a key point from early April, could serve as a temporary pause. If momentum falters here, traders might look again toward the $70.96 range, which is both a retracement level and a pivot established earlier this quarter. The day’s intraday highs near $77.57 may not signal a breakout, but they show the market’s willingness to test higher levels unseen since earlier this year. Beyond that, the next significant target is the January high of $80.73. If prices rise towards that level in the coming sessions, we might see shifts in positioning, especially around contract roll periods when trading volume increases and pressure becomes more apparent.

Monitoring Delta Exposure

For those tracking delta exposure, this price movement has multiple implications. Options skews are likely adjusting due to the rally, especially as call options approach being in-the-money. This situation often leads market makers to adjust their gamma, contributing to further movement in the underlying assets. Be prepared to consider these effects rather than just relying on directional chart signals. Carry costs in calendar spreads might also increase briefly, as near-term contracts outpace those planned for the future. This backwardation typically suggests that the market is focusing on immediate issues, whether geopolitical, related to supply chains, or even weather in transport areas. Prices are rising while physical fundamentals are stable, indicating that expectations are driving the movement. When this disconnect occurs, it’s wise to reevaluate short gamma exposure and position sizes, especially around week-end or month-end expirations. We’ve seen cases where thin liquidity amplifies price swings. Regarding implied volatility, today’s movements likely caused a short-term reduction in skews for puts, especially for strikes a few dollars below the current price. Traders looking to express near-term views should test these levels for premium efficiency before committing to positions or spreads, particularly ahead of high-volume sessions near inventory updates or major data releases. The coming sessions will feature rebalancing flows, especially from index-linked exposures, which may create more noise than signal on price charts. During these times, mechanical triggers—like breaking support and resistance—usually carry more significance than market sentiment. We will continue to monitor changes in positioning, particularly with rising open interest levels and their deviation from past trends. These patterns often appear a few sessions before increased market volatility. Tail scenarios may become more intriguing if minor support levels break down quicker than they build up. Be prepared for any whipsaw risks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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