OPEC’s oil production decreased in November, even though new quotas allowed for an increase of 85,000 barrels per day. Surveys by Reuters and Bloomberg confirm this drop in production.
Some OPEC countries have hit their maximum production capacity. Others, like Iraq, need to reduce output due to overproduction in the past. Saudi Arabia, despite having a higher quota, did not increase its production in November due to lower demand. As a result, the country has cut its official selling prices.
According to Reuters, production was about 400,000 barrels per day lower than the agreed level for countries with quotas. Bloomberg, however, reported a small overproduction of about 260,000 barrels per day. The difference between these assessments is significant for Iraq and the UAE, where Bloomberg shows higher production than Reuters.
OPEC’s influence on the market seems to be fading, as production decreased in November despite the higher quotas. The differing reports from Reuters and Bloomberg add to the market uncertainty, which may lead to increased price volatility in the coming weeks.
Saudi Arabia’s move to lower its selling prices suggests worries about declining global demand. Recent data supports this concern: China’s manufacturing PMI for November 2025 fell to 49.7, and the U.S. third-quarter GDP growth was revised down to just 1.4%. These signs indicate that even if OPEC effectively cuts supply, demand may not be strong enough to sustain higher prices.
While OPEC faces challenges, non-OPEC supply, especially from the United States, remains strong. New EIA data reveals U.S. crude production is near record levels at 13.4 million barrels per day. This robust supply limits the potential for rising crude prices and inhibits OPEC’s efforts.
This situation, where supply issues are dominated by weaker demand, mirrors events from 2023 when central bank tightening limited oil price increases. The current landscape suggests a range-bound or bearish market as we approach early 2026. Traders should be cautious about holding long positions.
Given these circumstances, purchasing put options on WTI or Brent futures for the first quarter of 2026 is a smart way to protect against possible price drops below key support levels. Additionally, selling out-of-the-money call options or creating bear call spreads could be an effective strategy, allowing us to profit from expected price stagnation or further declines due to a weak economic outlook.
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