Pool Corporation (POOL) is described as remaining in a broader bullish Elliott Wave pattern despite the fall from its 2021 high. It previously rose from the 2009 low into wave (I), described as an impulsive advance.
After wave (I), the stock moved into wave (II), a corrective phase that is said to be complex and still ongoing. The structure is described as incomplete, with the setup pointing to another move lower before wave (II) ends.
The analysis places a potential support area for wave (II) near 123, based on a Fibonacci projection. It also suggests the decline could finish as a larger five-wave sequence.
In the near term, the stock is expected to remain volatile with further downside swings. After wave (II) ends near the projected area, the next stage is described as wave (III), which is typically a strong advancing phase.
The longer-term bullish view is stated to remain valid if the price stays above the invalidation level near 8.76.
We see that Pool Corporation is still in a major corrective phase after its powerful rally ended back in 2021. This long decline is viewed as a wave (II) pullback within a much larger bullish structure. The correction has been complex, and the pattern suggests it is not yet complete.
The immediate outlook favors one more downward move before a lasting bottom is established. Recent economic data from April 2026 supports this view, with existing home sales falling by 3.5% and consumer sentiment dipping to 68.2, signaling caution in discretionary spending. We see this weakness aligning with the technical expectation that the stock will seek lower levels.
Given this, traders should consider bearish positions in the coming weeks to capitalize on this final leg down. Buying put options with near-term expiration dates or establishing bear call spreads could be effective strategies. The target for this decline is around the $123 region, which represents a key technical support level.
However, this anticipated drop is not a long-term signal to abandon the stock. Instead, we see it as the final stage of a major buying opportunity before the next powerful bull cycle, wave (III), begins. As the price approaches our $123 target, traders should prepare to shift their bias from bearish to bullish.
Once signs of a bottom appear near that support zone, the strategy should pivot to accumulating long exposure. Buying longer-dated call options or selling bull put spreads would be prudent ways to position for the expected wave (III). This third wave is often the most powerful and sustained part of the entire bull market cycle.
Looking back at the volatility we witnessed throughout 2025, it’s clear that corrections can be prolonged and frustrating. Yet, the current decline fits within a predictable long-term structure. This gives us a clear roadmap for a short-term bearish play followed by a significant long-term bullish opportunity.
