On Monday, October 13, 2025, the Invesco QQQ ETF tried to bounce back towards $603 after starting the day above $590. However, premarket trading now indicates a drop to around $593.24–$597.23, which would test previous support levels. Technical indicators show a hidden bullish divergence, hinting at possible upward movement. However, the economic situation is unstable, with rumors of a 100% tariff on China and a soon-to-come speech from Powell that could sway market feelings.

Current Positioning of QQQ

QQQ is currently trading between key levels. The immediate resistance is at $603.85, while support is found in the range of $593.24–$597.23. If it falls below the $589.05 support, it could decline to $580–$582, risking a major trend shift with targets around $555–$560, though this isn’t the main expectation right now. Overall, the outlook still leans slightly bullish, but traders should remain cautious due to fundamental factors. A market recovery could trap short positions, influenced by Powell’s upcoming comments and their effect on yields and tech sentiment. As we open the markets on Tuesday, October 14, 2025, QQQ is expected to drop towards the $593 support level, erasing the optimism from yesterday. This creates uncertainty, balancing a neutral-to-bullish technical chart against a fragile economic landscape. We should be ready for significant price swings in either direction in the weeks ahead.

Global Tariffs and Fed Policy Impact

The potential 100% tariff on China is a major concern, likely disrupting tech sector supply chains and revenues. We have seen how markets responded to similar threats in 2018-2019, experiencing abrupt downturns in tech stocks. Recent trade reports already show a slight slowdown in semiconductor exports, heightening this risk. All attention is on Fed Chair Powell’s upcoming speech, adding another layer of uncertainty. The latest inflation data for September 2025 indicates core inflation remains stubbornly above 3%, complicating the Fed’s decisions. A hawkish tone could easily push the 10-year Treasury yield above 4.0%, putting pressure on tech valuations. For traders expecting a breakdown, a clean fall below the $593 support level would signal a good opportunity to buy put options. If the next support at $589.05 also fails, that would strengthen the case for a drop toward the low $580s, providing a clear entry point for a bearish strategy. On the other hand, if the $593 support level holds strong, it could create a bear trap, supported by the hidden bullish divergence noted on the chart. Traders might consider buying short-dated call options if prices rebound convincingly from today’s lows. A move back above $603 would confirm that the uptrend is still in play. With high event risk, implied volatility is increasing, leading to higher option prices. This scenario could benefit strategies that sell premium, such as an iron condor with strikes below $580 and above $605. This strategy would yield profit if QQQ remains within a range as we wait for clarity from the Fed and trade negotiations. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading  now.

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