**Efforts For A Ceasefire** The conflict continues with no signs of improvement, as tensions hinder any chance for peace. Both sides remain active militarily, complicating the situation. Recent developments have damaged ceasefire efforts. Given the current circumstances, reaching an agreement seems unlikely. The international community is closely monitoring the situation. Various global actors are concerned and keep a watchful eye on changes. This scenario shows that diplomatic progress has halted while military pressure increases. With Putin expressing doubts about a ceasefire, it’s clear that the opportunity for peaceful talks is shrinking. Recent military actions have added new energy to the conflict, moving it further from any chance of disengagement. Both sides maintain consistent operational activity—not idle, but with persistent intent. Diplomatic efforts have made little headway, not for lack of trying, but due to diminished trust. Global observers are present, yet their influence has not changed the situation on the ground. **Trading Derivatives Under Geopolitical Tensions** For those trading derivatives, especially in metals and energy, this environment calls for precision. We are not just reacting to headlines—changes in natural gas contracts are already showing shifts in supply risk sentiment. European dependencies are delicately balanced. With supply routes previously altered at great expense, new uncertainties can pressure prices again, especially if local inventories drop below expected levels. Let’s be clear: the stalled diplomatic efforts suggest volatility might not only continue but could increase. Oil duration spreads indicate that near-term prices are high, reflecting recent buying activity. This isn’t merely hedging; it shows traders are uncertain about the future. We’ve observed similar trends in precious metals. Gold contracts, particularly those further out, have started to show signs of tail risk pricing. While not yet severe, the premium is present. This suggests we should brace for unpredictable markets rather than making directional bets. Movement without follow-through can trigger stop losses, as we’ve seen after past conflict-related news. Equity index volatility, indicated by protective put skew, remains relatively calm—this could be a lagging sign. The market isn’t ignoring risks; instead, capital is slow to move due to limited alternatives. This creates opportunities for sudden swings if circumstances change quickly. In the coming weeks, we need to be selective. We are adjusting our exposure with more short-term positioning than usual—focusing on specific scenarios instead of long-range predictions. Monitoring FX options pricing has provided insights into risk transfer—Eastern European currencies signal nervous positioning with high implied volatility, unlike stable central European majors, which could change rapidly. We should not assume today’s relative calm means stability. It is more an operational pause for reassessment, not a strategic retreat. This situation won’t likely fade from our screens anytime soon. Tactical timing, without being lulled by calmness, will be more beneficial than trying to predict future trends in the coming sessions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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