QXO, Inc. (QXO) was trading at $18.87 and is testing a rising trendline that has been in place since May 2025. The trendline began near $12 and has held through multiple pullbacks over about 14 months.
The share price reached $27 in late November, then fell and later rose to $25 in February. It has since dropped back to the trendline area around $18.50–$19.
The trendline has been touched three or four times, and each time the price rebounded. The repeated support suggests buying activity has appeared at this level.
One approach described is using the current test as an entry, with a daily close below $18.50–$19 as a stop level. Another approach is waiting for a close back above $20 before increasing exposure.
A downside scenario is described as a clear break and daily close below the trendline. Without that close below support, the price pattern is described as remaining in an upward trend.
We see that QXO is at a major technical juncture, testing a rising trendline that has been in place for over a year. The stock sits at $18.87, a price that forces a decision between betting on the established trend or positioning for a breakdown. How we trade this in the coming weeks will depend on our risk appetite and reading of the probabilities.
For traders betting on the trendline holding, buying near-term call options offers a leveraged way to play a bounce. The June $20 strike calls could provide significant upside if buyers step in as they did several times in 2025. A daily close below the trendline around $18.50 should be treated as a clear signal to exit the trade.
This bullish view is supported by recent data showing that US construction spending unexpectedly rose by 0.5% last month, beating forecasts for a slight decline. This fundamental tailwind gives more credibility to the idea that demand for building products is firming up. It gives us a reason beyond the chart to believe buyers will defend this important technical level.
More conservative traders should wait for the stock to prove the trendline has held by closing back above $20. A confirmed bounce could then be played with a bull call spread, such as buying the July $20 call and selling the July $23 call. This strategy would define our risk while targeting a move back toward the highs we saw earlier this year.
If the floor cracks and we get a daily close below $18.50, the bullish thesis is invalid. At that point, buying put options becomes the primary strategy to profit from a potential decline. A break of a year-long trendline like this could easily lead to a quick and sharp move down toward the $15 level.
Implied volatility is likely elevated right now given the uncertainty at this key price level, making long options more expensive. Looking back at the bounces in late 2025, we saw volatility fall sharply once the trendline was successfully defended. This suggests selling a put credit spread with a short strike below $18 could be an effective way to collect premium if we believe support will hold.
