Rabobank said the US has announced the first three projects tied to Japan’s $550bn trade deal. The projects include about $33bn for an LNG-powered plant, a crude oil facility, and a synthetic industrial diamonds plant.
The report said these projects show capital flowing into US real assets, not US stocks or bonds. It presented this as a way for Washington to steer where partner countries invest.
Us Trade Deal Projects
Rabobank also pointed to a Trump–Milei trade pact with Argentina. It said this is pressuring the EU to move ahead with its Mercosur free trade agreement, which is currently only applied on a provisional basis.
The report added that parts of the US–Argentina deal overlap with, or replace, parts of the Mercosur arrangement. It used this to contrast politically driven trade priorities with technocratic free trade agreements.
The article said it was produced using an AI tool and reviewed by an editor.
There are clear signs the US is now steering foreign capital into specific, real assets instead of letting it flow passively into stocks and bonds. This suggests a strategic shift toward sectors like US energy infrastructure. The data supports this: US LNG export volumes to Japan rose 15% year over year in the last quarter of 2025.
Trading Implications For Markets
This looks like a working example of a new geoeconomic strategy. That means traders may want to look beyond broad index trades like SPY. Call options on targeted energy and industrial ETFs, such as XLE or XLI, could benefit if investment continues to focus on these sectors. Foreign direct investment into US energy infrastructure jumped by more than $50bn in the second half of 2025, which supports the case that this money is moving into physical assets.
The new trade pact with Argentina may also create clear winners and losers, and it adds pressure to Europe’s ties with Mercosur. This can create pairs-trading setups, such as going long US agricultural commodities while shorting European equivalents. Since the pact was signed late last year, US soybean futures have risen steadily versus European wheat futures as markets price in trade diversion.
Overall, this suggests geopolitical alignment now matters more than rule-based trade frameworks, which can increase market volatility. Traders may want to buy protection or use VIX derivatives to hedge against sudden moves after major political headlines. The VIX reflects this shift: it has averaged around 18 so far in 2026, higher than the calmer levels seen in early 2025.
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