Rabobank said the Swiss franc moved to the top of the G10 performance table on a 1‑day measure after tariff-related uncertainty. The bank linked the move to higher demand for the franc during periods of market stress.
The report said continued CHF strength can hurt Swiss exports and domestic investment. It added that markets see only a small chance of the Swiss National Bank cutting rates below zero this year.
Rabobank also flagged the chance of foreign exchange intervention to curb further CHF gains. It cut its 3‑month EUR/CHF forecast to 0.91 from 0.92.
The report said the CHF may stay strong while geopolitical and trade tensions persist. The article said it was produced using an AI tool and reviewed by an editor.
We are seeing the Swiss franc rise to the top of the G10 currencies after new tariff uncertainty between the US and the EU. This typical flight to safety is creating major headwinds for Swiss exporters. The franc’s steady rise is now a key risk for Switzerland’s economic outlook.
This strength puts the Swiss National Bank in a tough spot, and we see a small but rising chance of a policy response. With Swiss inflation down to 1.2% in January and exports falling 0.5% in the final quarter of 2025, the SNB has reasons to act. Traders are watching for either an unexpected rate cut or direct foreign exchange intervention.
For derivatives traders, this backdrop points to higher implied volatility in franc pairs, especially EUR/CHF. We now expect EUR/CHF to fall to 0.91 over the next three months. That creates potential options trades that can profit from either more franc strength or a sharp reversal. The main risk is a sudden SNB announcement that could quickly move the exchange rate.
The SNB’s sudden removal of the euro peg in 2015 shows it can take decisive action that moves markets. Today’s setup is different, but that event highlights the risk of forceful intervention if officials see franc strength as a threat. This history also means short CHF positions can carry meaningful tail risk.
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