Rabobank’s Michael Every says the US Maritime Action Plan (MAP) shows the US is moving away from rules-based free trade. Instead, it is shifting toward bloc-led, neomercantilist policy. The MAP ties into the Section 301 inquiry into China’s maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors. It calls Beijing’s practices “unreasonable and burdensome”. The article points to subsidies, state ownership, forced technology transfer, and predatory pricing as reasons China leads in shipbuilding. It says China now holds more than half of the global market.

Maritime Policy And Market Impact

The MAP could shift more US maritime trade onto US-flagged ships, and later onto US-built ships. It says that in 2025, markets feared an immediate shortage of suitable vessels, which pushed freight rates higher. The piece says US port fees, along with tariffs and “upstream” alliances for critical minerals, could speed up supply-chain fragmentation. It describes two emerging blocs: a US-led group with Korea and Japan (and possibly Europe) versus a China–Russia-led bloc. It adds that US port fees on China were paused during a recent US–China trade détente. If the fees return, it says China could respond with counter-fees, WTO challenges, or other economic and geopolitical actions. This move toward neomercantilist policy suggests higher market volatility in the weeks ahead. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which has been near 19, could move above 22 as traders price in the risk of new tariffs and supply-chain disruptions. Consider buying VIX call options, or using straddles on major indices, to benefit from larger price swings.

Trading Approaches And Hedging

The focus on the US maritime sector points to higher shipping costs. Freight rates surged in 2025 when these ideas were first discussed. The Drewry World Container Index has already risen 4% this month to above $3,400 per 40ft container. Traders can look at call options on US-flagged shipping firms and futures linked to freight indexes, since new port fees would likely lift prices quickly. These supply-chain pressures are inflationary and could make the Federal Reserve’s job harder. The January CPI report shows core inflation is still sticky at a 3.7% annual rate. Markets are now pricing fewer rate cuts for 2026. Expect ongoing pressure on rate-sensitive assets, and consider positions in Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) futures that reflect “higher for longer” rates. The rise of separate US-focused and China-focused blocs also supports paired trades. US domestic manufacturers and key allies in Korea and Japan may benefit, making derivatives on sector ETFs in those markets more attractive. On the other side, consider put options on firms that depend heavily on Chinese manufacturing and logistics. The risk of Chinese retaliation, such as bringing back counter-fees, adds more uncertainty, especially for currencies. Any escalation could strengthen the US dollar as a safe haven and weaken the Chinese yuan. Watch USD/CNH closely, as it may be a key signal of trade tensions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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