Rabobank cited Donald Trump saying U.S. growth could be 15% or more if a future Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, “does his job.” The report said it was not clear what “15%” meant—annual growth, growth over the remaining two-and-a-half years of a presidency, or nominal versus real growth.
The report linked this comment to expectations that policy could allow faster growth. It also referenced Financial Times coverage saying foreign money is still flowing into the U.S. Rabobank said this backdrop supports the U.S. dollar.
Policy Pressure And Growth Expectations
The report also mentioned media reports that the U.S. may exempt large technology firms from upcoming chip tariffs. These exemptions would depend on foreign direct investment commitments from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC).
It said corporate use of AI is rising and could boost productivity, though it noted that different types of AI use may have different effects. For near-term data, it highlighted U.S. retail sales and the NFIB small business survey as key releases.
The main takeaway is that there is pressure on the Fed to let the economy run hot—favoring growth even if inflation stays sticky near the 3.2% level seen last month. This view is supported by the strong 3.5% annualized GDP growth in the final quarter of 2025. Derivatives strategies may now lean toward a pro-growth, higher-volatility outlook for interest rates.
Even with political noise, the report expects foreign investors to keep putting money into the U.S.—a trend sometimes called “Bash All Day, Buy All Night.” Treasury data from late 2025 supported this, with foreign holdings of U.S. securities reaching record highs. These inflows support long U.S. dollar positions, and make call options on the dollar index appealing versus other major currencies.
Market Positioning And Near Term Catalysts
The report argues that the AI boom is starting to show up in real productivity gains, which can support higher U.S. market valuations. It linked this to the Nasdaq 100’s strong 30% rally in 2025. It said continued bullish positioning in U.S. equity indices may make sense, potentially using call spreads to reduce option costs.
It also said the administration’s more pragmatic industrial policy—such as exempting Big Tech from some chip tariffs in exchange for investment—could reduce major downside risks for markets. This selective neo-mercantilist approach may provide a steadier backdrop for sectors like semiconductors. The report described this as a reason to consider selling out-of-the-money puts on tech-focused ETFs.
In the near term, it is closely watching upcoming retail sales and the NFIB small business survey. Strong results would reinforce the “hot economy” story and could trigger short-term volatility. Traders may look at short-dated options to position for a possible upside surprise in these releases.
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