Rabobank’s RaboResearch Team has raised its 2026 forecast for Brent crude oil to $64 per barrel, up from $58.25. The forecast for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has also increased to $59.80 per barrel, from $54.60.
Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran, are influencing crude oil prices and the energy market. Analysts recommend caution when hedging refined products until crude prices drop and inventories increase. The delay in OPEC’s supply return and the potential effects of rising metal prices on the economy are being closely watched.
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We are now projecting that Brent crude will average $64 a barrel in 2026. This adjustment is mainly due to ongoing geopolitical risks, especially related to Iran. The WTI forecast has also been raised to nearly $60 a barrel.
Recent tensions in major shipping lanes have created a risk premium, causing front-month WTI futures to trade above $62 this week. The Energy Information Administration’s report last week confirmed market tightness, revealing a surprising decrease in crude stocks of 1.2 million barrels, instead of an expected increase. This indicates that the market is currently undersupplied.
We expect OPEC+ to continue delaying significant supply increases for 2026. This perspective was reinforced by comments from key member countries last week, which indicated they plan to keep production steady through the second quarter. This cautious approach continues from their strategy throughout most of 2025.
Market Strategies and Economic Slowdown
Given this scenario, we are being cautious about hedging refined products like gasoline and diesel. Until we see crude prices clearly decline and inventories start to rise, starting new long-term hedges seems premature. The current market volatility makes short-term options strategies a better fit for managing immediate risks.
We also need to monitor the potential for a widespread economic slowdown, driven by rising metal prices. We noticed that record-high copper prices in late 2025 began to negatively affect global manufacturing data during Q4 earnings season. A similar trend this year could eventually limit oil demand, although we don’t see clear signs of this yet.
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