Gold had a quiet week after a strong rally on Monday. Trade tensions had pushed gold prices higher, but now the market has settled down. Overall, gold is still trending upward as real yields are expected to fall, especially with the Federal Reserve likely easing its policy. Short-term changes in expectations for rate cuts could affect gold’s price, so it’s important to keep an eye on key economic reports like the NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) and CPI (Consumer Price Index). On the daily chart, gold has broken above a downward trendline, signaling potential for new highs around the 3438 level. Buyers are targeting this level, while sellers are prepared to act if it leads to a drop back to the major upward trendline. The 4-hour chart shows a small upward trendline, indicating bullish momentum. Buyers have a favorable risk-reward setup near the trendline to aim for the 3438 level, while sellers might target the 3200 level if prices fall further. On the 1-hour chart, there’s a support zone around the 3330 level. Recently, buyers have positioned themselves for a move towards 3438. If there’s another pullback, buyers might step in again, while sellers focus on a decline towards the 3200 mark. Today, we’ll see the latest US Jobless Claims figures, with the NFP report coming at the end of the week. So far, after a brief surge on Monday, gold has entered a holding pattern. That rally was partly due to geopolitical and trade concerns. Since then, the market has calmed, and traders are being cautious, waiting for clearer signals from upcoming economic data. In simple terms, all eyes are on where real yields are headed. As the Federal Reserve is likely to ease policies further, it’s expected that inflation-adjusted rates will weaken, which typically increases the interest in gold. Traders must closely monitor this relationship—when real yields drop, gold often rises because the cost of holding non-yielding assets becomes cheaper. Right now, everything depends on timing. Expectations for Fed rate cuts are the key factor influencing gold. We’re watching labor market and inflation figures closely because these will inform when and how the Federal Reserve acts. The NFP and CPI numbers are significant as they indicate economic strength and inflation pressure. Any surprises in these reports could quickly change gold’s direction. Looking at the technical side: the daily chart shows gold moving past its downward trendline. This suggests that buyers are regaining control and are keenly eyeing the 3438 level. However, that price point will attract sellers too, with positions set up to catch a downturn back to a longer-term trend. This tension around 3438 creates a dynamic market. Examining the 4-hour timeframe reveals a clearer short-term picture: momentum is still leaning upward, though not very aggressively. Prices have maintained a slight upward trend, allowing buyers to find decent opportunities without taking on too much risk. Those who are patient often gain from these moves, especially if they use defined stop-losses. Conversely, sellers aiming for weakness may look to the 3200 level; targeting levels that the market has previously reacted to is key. If prices break down, those levels could become significant again. On the 1-hour chart, we see a more tactical approach. Support near 3330 has held recently. Predictably, some buyers have stepped in, looking for prices to rise again. If prices test this support level again and hold, it may spark another rally. However, if that support breaks, sellers won’t hesitate to push towards the previous low near 3200. Now that we have the weekly US jobless claims and the NFP report coming up, the market is focusing on how the numbers will influence policy expectations rather than just the figures themselves. Strong data may lead traders to believe rate cuts are near, potentially pushing gold higher. On the other hand, if the data suggests a longer period of tighter policy, expect some pullbacks at resistance levels. What matters now is not just historical prices but how they react to key levels with changing macroeconomic signals. Monitoring these responses in real-time—especially after major reports—will offer clearer guidance than longer-term models. We will continue to adapt our strategies based on this understanding, balancing market structure with real-time flow as opportunities arise.

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