The US Dollar is struggling to break past the 0.8225 resistance level while inside a downward channel. This suggests that bears are in control, with a key focus on holding above the 0.8200 support level. Although there has been some positive sentiment lately due to a pause on European tariffs, the Dollar is still having trouble against the Swiss Franc. Concerns about US fiscal policy are influencing this trend, especially as the Senate discusses tax legislation. At the moment, the US Dollar shows mixed strength against major currencies, performing best against the Japanese Yen. Its performance against others is fluctuating: it is down by -0.12% compared to the Euro, -0.23% against the British Pound, and up by 0.27% compared to the Canadian Dollar.

Technical Outlook Suggests Bearish Trend

The technical analysis for USD/CHF indicates ongoing lower highs and lows, marking a bearish trend. With the 4-hour RSI below 50, bulls have failed twice to surpass the 0.8225 resistance, which hints at a possible retest of the 0.8200 support. If 0.8200 breaks, the next target could be around 0.8170, and then the 161.8% retracement level at 0.8150. If bulls manage to break above 0.8225, attention could shift to 0.8270. Investors should do their own research before making financial decisions. This information is for educational purposes and may include forward-looking statements. Errors might exist, and there’s a risk of losing some or all of your investment. The US Dollar continues to face selling pressure within its downward channel. Despite attempts to recover, sellers are maintaining control. Every effort to exceed 0.8225 has failed, reflecting a lack of demand for higher prices at this point. This resistance level is well defended, especially since bulls have been turned away without much challenge. Technically, the downward pattern is quite clear, reflecting lower highs and lower lows. This trend often signifies that the downward movement is not over yet. The RSI staying under 50 shows that the momentum is not leaning towards buyers.

Concerns Over US Fiscal Policy

There is renewed downward pressure around the 0.8200 mark. If this level breaks, the next support could be around 0.8170, potentially leading to further declines toward 0.8150. The 161.8% Fibonacci level is significant and often acts as a point for taking profits or strong market reactions. This weakness persists even with a generally positive risk sentiment, which is surprising. The market welcomed the pause on European tariffs, but this hasn’t helped the Dollar in this pair. The underlying weakness is driven by concerns over US fiscal policy, particularly regarding tax directions. Ongoing Senate discussions have left some investors anxious about Washington’s ability to maintain stability. The Dollar’s strength is not consistent. It is performing well against the Yen, mainly due to the ongoing yield gap and the Bank of Japan’s dovish stance. However, it’s losing a bit against other currencies. A decline of -0.12% against the Euro or -0.23% against the British Pound might seem minor daily, but collectively, these drops indicate weakening support. The small gain of +0.27% against the Canadian Dollar seems more linked to oil prices and growth expectations than overall strength. For those planning their positions, the current trend direction is crucial. There isn’t much indication of a strong reversal unless the 0.8225 level is broken and maintained. If 0.8200 gives way, there’s a risk of further declines towards lower extension targets. This situation requires careful monitoring, especially during low-liquidity times when movements can be more pronounced. When analyzing these trends, it’s wise to consider price changes in context with the broader market—taking into account the risk sentiment overall. The disconnect between the recent tariff news and currency movements suggests deeper issues, possibly related to policy uncertainty. For now, price action shows that confidence is not currently leaning towards the Dollar in this pairing. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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