Retail sales in South Africa fell to 2.3% year-on-year in August, down from 5.6% the previous month. This shows a decline in consumer spending in the country. The EUR/USD currency pair saw some ups and downs, dropping back to 1.1620 after reaching close to 1.1650. The movements indicate ongoing losses for the US Dollar due to renewed trade tensions and expectations of comments from Federal Reserve officials.

The British Pound Stability

The British Pound remained stable around 1.3350 against the US Dollar, despite previous drops. It steadied thanks to a weaker Dollar and upcoming statements from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Gold prices stayed around $4,200 per ounce. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade disputes between the US and China continue to boost demand for the metal. Bitcoin traded below $112,500, with its recovery tempered by macroeconomic worries. Renewed trade tensions between the US and China, along with a prolonged US government shutdown, affected market sentiment, limiting Bitcoin’s growth. In its October 2025 World Economic Outlook, the IMF slightly improved its global growth forecast but noted that overall growth is still slow. This highlights the ongoing economic uncertainty that influences global markets.

Uncertainty And Market Volatility

The IMF’s October 2025 report emphasizes “Acute” uncertainty in the market. This ongoing uncertainty suggests that volatility will stay high, a view backed by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which has been above 25 for the last two weeks. We should focus on strategies that take advantage of market swings rather than just making directional bets. Renewed trade tensions between the US and China, plus the ongoing US government shutdown, pose challenges for the US Dollar. Recently, the Dollar Index (DXY) fell below the crucial 101.50 support level, which is a five-month low. There are opportunities to sell puts on the Dollar or use bear call spreads to benefit from its weakness compared to currencies like the Euro and the Pound Sterling. Gold remains the main safe-haven asset at around $4,200 an ounce. There has been a significant 12% rise in open interest for December gold call options just in the past week, showing strong bullish sentiment. To manage high premiums, traders might consider long call spreads to maintain upside potential while controlling risks. The sharp decline in South African retail sales growth from 5.6% to just 2.3% indicates a slowing domestic economy. This comes after last month’s disappointing manufacturing PMI, which fell below 50 for the first time since the second quarter. This situation makes buying puts on the South African Rand (ZAR) a more appealing trade against more stable currencies. In the crypto markets, Bitcoin’s inability to break above the $112,500 resistance level shows that broader macroeconomic uncertainty is limiting its rally. Looking back to late 2021, we notice similar pauses often preceded consolidations after strong price increases. This environment favors strategies like selling covered calls on existing BTC holdings or establishing iron condors to profit from a possible sideways trading range. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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