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    Retail sales in the United States see no growth, missing the expected 0.1% increase

    by VT Markets
    /
    Dec 16, 2025

    Slowdown for American Shoppers

    In October, retail sales in the United States stayed flat at $732.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. This stability comes after a slight 0.1% increase in September, which was revised down from an initial estimate of 0.3%. October’s results did not meet the expected 0.1% growth. The steady retail sales in October, along with the downward revision for September, signal a slowdown for American consumers. This suggests that the economic slowdown we’ve been predicting is becoming reality as we head into late 2025. The data indicates cautious holiday shopping and a weak start to the new year. Other recent figures support this trend. A November jobs report showed only 85,000 new jobs, and last week’s CPI data revealed core inflation dropped to 2.4% annually. These numbers indicate that inflation is under control, which puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to change its policies. We now see a greater chance of a rate cut in early 2026.

    Market Opportunities

    In light of this outlook, we are exploring interest rate derivatives that could benefit from a more dovish Federal Reserve. Options on SOFR futures for the second quarter of 2026 look appealing, as they let us position for lower rates. Looking back to late 2023, we noticed how quickly market sentiment can change and how it can price in future cuts even before they are officially announced. For equity traders, a careful but focused approach is necessary. We are thinking about protective put options on consumer discretionary ETFs, which are more vulnerable to a spending decline. Meanwhile, lower rates could help technology and growth sectors, making call options on the Nasdaq 100 index a potential safe choice. In currency markets, ongoing weak U.S. economic data is likely to put pressure on the dollar. Predictions of earlier Fed rate cuts lower the dollar’s yield advantage compared to currencies like the euro and yen. We are therefore looking for chances to use options on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) to prepare for further declines. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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