A Reuters poll published on Friday showed economists expect the Bank of England to hold the Bank Rate at 3.75% at its 18 June meeting, based on a survey of 65 economists. Expectations beyond June were split: 40% forecast at least one rise later in the year, while six anticipated a cut. On prices, the poll put inflation peaking at 3.6% this year, which would be close to double the Bank’s 2% target, before easing to 2.6% in 2027. Growth was seen at 1% this year, up from 0.8% in May’s poll, and then 1.1% next year.
The BoE sets monetary policy for the UK with a mandate for price stability at 2% inflation, chiefly by adjusting base lending rates that shape borrowing costs across the economy and influence Pound Sterling (GBP). When inflation runs above target, raising rates tightens credit conditions and tends to support GBP; when inflation is below target, rate cuts can be considered to stimulate borrowing and typically weigh on the currency. In stressed markets, Quantitative Easing (QE) uses money creation to buy government or AAA-rated corporate bonds, generally weakening GBP, while Quantitative Tightening (QT) reverses that by halting additional purchases and reinvestment, which is usually supportive for Sterling.
Expectations for the June Meeting and Market Positioning
With the Bank of England meeting approaching on June 18, we see the consensus is for rates to be held at 3.75%. This expectation is likely already priced into the Pound, so the decision itself may not cause a major move. Our focus should be on the forward guidance and the tone of the meeting minutes for any hints of future policy.
The split among economists, with a significant 40% expecting a rate hike later this year, signals underlying market uncertainty. This creates a potential for increased volatility, so we are looking at options strategies that could benefit from a sharp price swing, regardless of direction. We believe implied volatility in GBP currency pairs will likely rise as the meeting date gets closer.
Inflation, Growth Outlook, and Potential Policy Signals
The projection that inflation will peak at 3.6% this year seems plausible, especially when we consider that core inflation has remained sticky. For context, while the headline CPI rate recently fell to 2.3% in April 2024, persistent service sector inflation has been a key concern for policymakers. This underlying pressure supports the case for the Bank remaining hawkish for longer than the market anticipates.
Economic growth forecasts have also been revised upwards, a view supported by recent data showing the UK economy grew by 0.6% in the first quarter of 2024, officially exiting a shallow recession. This economic resilience gives the Bank of England more room to keep interest rates higher to fight inflation without choking off growth. This environment is broadly supportive for Sterling against currencies with a more dovish central bank.
Historically, even during periods of on-hold decisions, the Pound has reacted strongly to the vote split and the language used by the Governor. We recall instances in the 2017-2018 cycle where a hawkish hold, signaling future tightening, caused a significant rally in GBP/USD. We will be watching the vote count closely; any increase in members voting for a hike would be a very bullish signal.
