The RICS House Price Balance for June 2025 was reported at -7%, better than the anticipated -9%. The previous reading was also -7%. In April, a property tax increase caused a downturn in the UK property market. However, the effects of this tax hike are slowly fading. For the first time since December, new buyer inquiries are rising, and there are signs of improvement in agreed sales. RICS suggests the market is starting to stabilize after a period of ups and downs. The RICS house price balance measures how surveyors feel about changes in house prices. Previously, disruptions from Stamp Duty adjustments made it hard to see clear trends. Now, those effects seem to have settled, allowing for better analysis of the market. There has been no change in the value of the GBP. The key takeaway is that the UK property market, while still slightly weak, shows early signs of recovery after months of pressure. The tax change in April caused many buyers and sellers to rush their transactions, leading to a temporary price spike followed by a decline. Now, the market seems to be smoothing out. The RICS figure of -7% means more surveyors report falling house prices than those noting price increases, but not by much. Although it was expected that the decline would worsen, it did not. This is significant and suggests that the worst effects of the tax changes may be behind us. Still, it does not indicate a return to growth, which is important to remember. Positive new buyer inquiries and improved agreed sales are important signals. They indicate renewed interest from buyers who were previously hesitant. If this continues alongside better sales figures, we can start to see a stable pattern emerging. Survey responses suggest a shift from volatility towards steadiness. From a market perspective, the stable GBP shows that traders had already anticipated the immediate impacts of the tax changes. Since there’s no major surprise, the data did not shift expectations enough to cause market repositioning. Looking forward, if buyer interest continues to rise despite the tax issues, demand could increase faster than current cautious pricing reflects. It’s crucial to monitor sales patterns and inquiry trends over the next month, particularly regionally, as different areas recover at different rates. Cox and his team seem to indicate that the survey is not just showing a slight improvement in sentiment but the beginnings of renewed activity. This could impact broader economic indicators. Related sectors, like homebuilding and consumer credit, typically respond to such changes, albeit with a slight delay. For markets that depend on timing, this anticipation is valuable. With the GBP steady and property sentiment improving a bit, we see limited potential for volatility in the short term. However, assumptions built into short positions in property-sensitive investments are starting to become outdated. Timing here is crucial; not all price corrections happen simultaneously. The market might begin focusing more on specific factors—like regional differences, monthly lending data, and developer activity. As the broader impact of the tax changes fades, smaller details will become more important. Any signs of normalized transaction volumes or an increase in listings that match demand are likely to quickly influence pricing instruments. Thus, traders who rely on data rather than just overall sentiment should watch for discrepancies between expected and actual buyer behavior. Recent resilience, while modest, is noteworthy because it was unexpected.

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