The Indian rupee opened weaker against the US dollar, pushing USD/INR towards 95.65 after firmer US Nonfarm Payrolls data for May supported the greenback and higher oil prices weighed on import-sensitive currencies. The US Dollar Index (DXY) held near 100.00, extending Friday’s move and sitting in its strongest area in two months. In energy markets, the MCX crude oil contract expiring 18 June rose 4.6% to around 9,020 as tensions between Iran and Israel lifted supply-risk concerns.
US labour data showed Nonfarm Payrolls at 172K versus 85K expected, while April’s figure was revised to 179K from 115K; the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3%. Against that backdrop, the CME FedWatch tool put the probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate rise this year at 73.8%, up from 45.2% a week earlier. India-focused flows also remained negative, with Foreign Institutional Investors selling Rs. 30,814.47 crore so far in June after net sales of Rs. 55,963.33 crore in May. Technically, USD/INR stayed above the 20-day EMA at 95.4720, with the RSI at 53.9; supports sit at 94.95 and 94.00, while resistances are 96.30 and 97.10.
Macro Drivers Of INR Weakness
Based on the current environment, we see continued weakness for the Indian Rupee in the coming weeks. The combination of a surprisingly strong US jobs report and escalating Middle East tensions is creating a perfect storm against the INR. This has pushed the USD/INR pair towards 95.65, and we expect this upward trend to persist.
The robust US labor market, compounded by the latest May CPI inflation data which came in slightly above expectations at 3.6%, reinforces the case for a hawkish Federal Reserve. This has cemented the dollar’s strength, with the Dollar Index holding firm at two-month highs. We believe the Fed is now more likely to deliver at least one rate hike this year, which will continue to attract capital towards US assets.
Higher oil prices are acting as a direct drag on the Rupee, as India imports over 85% of its crude oil needs. The recent flare-up between Iran and Israel has pushed crude prices up sharply, which was reflected in India’s trade deficit for May 2026 widening to $28.5 billion, according to preliminary data. This ongoing geopolitical risk will keep oil prices elevated and pressure India’s current account.
We are also seeing significant capital outflows from Indian markets, with Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remaining net sellers through early June. This pattern is reminiscent of the 2013 Taper Tantrum, where the prospect of higher US interest rates led to a sharp exit from emerging markets. This trend is likely to continue as long as the Fed maintains its hawkish outlook.
Trading Strategies For USD/INR
For derivative traders, we believe buying USD/INR call options is a prudent strategy to capitalize on expected Rupee depreciation with limited risk. We would look at strikes around 96.00 or 96.50 for July expiry to capture the next potential leg up. This approach offers a defined downside while providing exposure to significant upside potential.
Those trading futures should consider maintaining long USD/INR positions, using the 20-day EMA near 95.47 as a key support level. A decisive break above the 96.30 high would signal further momentum, opening up a path towards the all-time high near 97.10. We would view any dips towards the support level as buying opportunities for now.
