Russia’s foreign trade balance was $13.966bn in March. This was above the forecast of $11.8bn.
The result means the trade balance exceeded expectations by $2.166bn. The data refers to March.
The stronger-than-expected March trade surplus of $13.966 billion signals underlying resilience in Russia’s export-driven economy. This positive surprise suggests the ruble may have a firmer floor than we previously anticipated. We should therefore re-evaluate short positions on the currency, as its fundamental support appears more robust.
This data aligns with recent trends we’ve seen in the energy markets. Brent crude prices have consistently held above $95 per barrel in late April and early May 2026, while the discount on Urals crude has narrowed to just $12, down from an average of $18 in the last quarter of 2025. This price strength directly boosts export revenues, validating the March surplus figure.
Given this, we should consider adjusting our currency derivative strategies for the coming weeks. The cost of downside protection on the ruble, specifically buying USD/RUB call options, may now be overly expensive relative to the actual risk. It could be a good time to sell some of those calls or initiate positions that benefit from a stable-to-stronger ruble.
The trade figures also reinforce a bullish outlook on key commodities for the second quarter. This strength in Russian exports suggests global demand remains robust, particularly from key Asian partners. We should look at increasing exposure to long positions in oil derivatives, potentially by buying call options on Brent futures expiring in July or August.
We should remain cautious, remembering the pattern from mid-2025 when a similar strong export reading was quickly followed by new sanctions targeting shipping entities. That event caused a spike in implied volatility in the USD/RUB pair by over 30% within a week. Therefore, holding some cheap, out-of-the-money options to hedge against sudden geopolitical risk remains a prudent strategy.
