Russia’s consumer price index rose by 0.42% in November compared to the previous month, a slight drop from the 0.5% increase earlier. This change shows trends in inflation and the economic situation in Russia, which are important for those studying the country’s economy.

Understanding The Data

The information here aims to inform and should not be seen as financial advice. Investors should remember that research is crucial before entering markets, as there are risks involved, including the potential loss of money. The recent inflation data from Russia indicates a slight slowdown to 0.42% for November. This brings attention to the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) upcoming meeting. We anticipate a very high chance that the CBR will keep its key interest rate steady at 16% on December 19th. Although inflation is cooling, this does not suggest a major shift in their strict policy stance.

Outlook On Interest Rates

With the central bank expected to hold steady, the volatility of ruble-denominated assets may decrease heading into the new year. Traders might look into strategies that take advantage of this, like selling short-dated options on the USDRUB currency pair to earn premium. The annual inflation rate, hovering around 7.5%, remains significantly above the official target of 4%, indicating that the central bank is likely to stick with a tight policy. In late 2023 and 2024, we observed a similar trend, where the CBR maintained high rates for a long time to ensure price stability. Thus, any derivative positions should be protected against unexpected hawkish statements that could unexpectedly strengthen the ruble. A small investment in out-of-the-money USDRUB put options that expire in January could serve as a low-cost hedge. Looking past the December meeting, attention will turn to year-end spending data and the December inflation report, expected in early January 2026. This upcoming report will be crucial for the CBR’s first meeting of the new year. We expect increased volatility around this release, making derivatives with late-January and February expirations particularly appealing. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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