Russia’s central bank reserves rose to $771bn from $757.5bn.
That is an increase of $13.5bn.
The increase in Russia’s central bank reserves to $771 billion signals a stronger economic footing than many anticipated. This suggests the ruble may find a stable floor, making outright short positions on the currency increasingly risky. We should reconsider strategies that bet on a collapse of the RUB, as its stability seems backed by substantial holdings.
We see this strength reflected in commodity markets, with Urals crude consistently trading above the old G7 price cap, averaging $78 a barrel through the first quarter of 2026. This continues the trend we saw solidify back in 2025 as non-Western shipping and insurance mechanisms became dominant. Long-dated call options on energy ETFs like XLE could be a way to play this continued price resilience.
This financial stability could embolden further geopolitical moves, creating event risk, particularly for European markets. We are seeing a slight uptick in the cost of VSTOXX futures, the main gauge of European volatility, for the coming months. It may be prudent to buy protective put options on major European indices like the DAX as a hedge.
A significant portion of these reserves, an estimated 40%, is now held in Chinese Yuan, reflecting the deepening trade ties we have tracked since 2024. This growing CNH liquidity pool outside of China’s direct control could dampen volatility in the USD/CNH pair. We could look at selling strangles on currency-pair ETFs, betting on a more stable trading range.
The ineffectiveness of the sanctions regime, a topic that dominated financial discourse through late 2025, means we should look at second-order effects. Agricultural and heavy machinery manufacturers in neutral trading-partner nations have seen their order books swell by over 15% year-over-year. We can gain exposure through options on specific industrial sector ETFs that have high weightings of these firms.
