Saudi Arabia’s production increase has had little impact on crude oil prices, which are primarily driven by demand trends.

    by VT Markets
    /
    Jun 5, 2025
    Crude oil prices have stayed stable despite Saudi Arabia’s push for faster production increases. The kingdom wants OPEC+ to ramp up oil output to regain its market share instead of focusing solely on maintaining prices. Initially, this news stirred the market but quickly lost impact as traders had already anticipated it. Now, the focus has shifted to oil demand, with expectations of improvement in the coming months. Technical analysis shows that WTI crude oil has been fluctuating between a support level of 60.00 and a resistance level of 64.00 for about a month. It seems likely that this range will continue until there’s a breakout, with a possible upward breakout targeting 72.00. Looking more closely at the 1-hour chart, we see a tighter trading range between 62.18 support and 64.00 resistance. Traders are expected to maintain this pattern until a breakout is confirmed. This situation illustrates a market digesting supply changes while increasingly considering demand forecasts. In summary, Saudi Arabia is shifting its stance from restricting output to support prices to encouraging quicker production growth. This change naturally influences market expectations. However, the muted market response suggests that traders had already priced in these developments. Those with short-term strategies understand that when news doesn’t cause significant movement, it’s often because positioning is already set. In trading terms, the market is currently stable within its range, both on daily and shorter intraday levels. The upper limit at 64.00 is limiting gains, with buyers cautious about pushing through until a clear catalyst appears. On the downside, support has held around 62.18, providing structure and opportunities for trades that capitalize on price reversals. The price behavior indicates indecision rather than strong bearish sentiment. For significant directional moves to occur, trading volume must increase, breaking through current limits. If the price sustains an upward move above 64.00, especially with momentum confirmation, targeting 72.00 becomes logical. This level is based not only on projected movements but also on previous interaction areas where sellers have emerged. It’s crucial to monitor whether the market is reacting more to supply changes or is shifting toward demand-focused evaluations. If expectations for consumption show consistent upward adjustments—particularly in mobility data or industrial drawdowns—the range might break sooner than anticipated. Shorter timeframes, like 1-hour charts, are behaving predictably, maintaining consistent patterns within tighter boundaries. Until one side breaks with volume support, focusing on bounce-and-fade strategies is the most balanced approach. However, the longer this consolidation persists, the more energy builds for an eventual breakout. We’re observing for any significant volume spikes at the extremes, especially around 64.00, which could signal institutional interest in short-term trends. Sustained buying as the US session opens would increase the likelihood of an upward range expansion. The upcoming weeks won’t likely bring complacency. There’s a lot happening just beneath the surface: changes in supply, shifts in consumption, and technical levels. The interaction of these factors—along with their timing—will determine which traders successfully navigate market movements.

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