Scotiabank strategists: Pound Sterling rises as USD weakens ahead of BoE

    by VT Markets
    /
    Aug 7, 2025
    The Pound Sterling stayed steady, trading close to session highs because of a weaker US Dollar. This comes as the Bank of England gets ready to announce important policy changes. The Bank of England lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected. However, there was a split among policymakers, with four members voting to keep rates unchanged. The Bank stressed the importance of slow and cautious rate cuts. Always do thorough research before making financial decisions. Investing comes with risks, including the potential loss of some or all of your capital, as well as emotional stress. This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets. You are responsible for your investment decisions, including any losses. The content does not offer personalized financial advice and does not guarantee accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. We are not liable for any errors, omissions, or damages. The key takeaway from the Bank of England’s decision is not just the rate cut but the notable 5-4 vote split. This division among committee members shows a lot of uncertainty about future interest rates. The market will likely adjust to a slower, more data-driven easing cycle than expected. Looking at the latest data from July 2025, UK inflation is down from its previous highs but still sits at 2.8%. This is above the Bank’s 2% target and explains why four members chose not to support a rate cut. This ongoing inflation may help keep the Pound stable in the short term. The economic situation makes things more complex. A recent report shows UK GDP grew by only 0.1% in the second quarter of 2025. This slow growth highlights the need for monetary easing, but the Bank of England is cautious after the fast inflation spike in 2022-2023. We expect them to be careful to avoid repeating previous mistakes. For derivative traders, this means implied volatility in Sterling options will likely stay high in the coming weeks. The Cboe Sterling Volatility Index (BPVIX) recently rose to 9.2, up from an average of 7.5 in July. Strategies that take advantage of this, like selling strangles or iron condors, could be appealing if you expect GBP/USD to stay within a specific range. The mixed economic signals — low growth and stubborn inflation — create a confusing picture. Instead of making big bets with futures, traders should focus on volatility prices. If we think the market has reacted too strongly to the split vote, selling volatility might lead to profits as conditions stabilize. Recent Commitment of Traders reports from late July 2025 show that speculative accounts are taking on more net-long positions. The cautious message from the Bank could lead to a decrease in these bullish bets, possibly causing the Pound to weaken in the short term. This might present a chance to buy call options at a lower strike price if the Pound dips.

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