The USDCHF is currently leaning toward sellers, with resistance at 0.7994. Any further decline will depend on breaking through the area between 0.7938 and 0.7947. Yesterday, the USDCHF found support in the range of 0.79104 to 0.79209, allowing the price to bounce back above last Friday’s low of 0.79556. It closed the session near its highest point.

Trading Shows Volatility

Today’s trading has been volatile during the Asian and early European sessions. The pair reached new session highs, testing a resistance level before sellers brought it down. Weaker U.S. PPI data caused a sharp drop below last Friday’s low, but the momentum faded, and the pair rebounded. Technically, sellers remain in control, with the price below the 100-hour moving average at 0.7982. The swing resistance at 0.7994 includes the 50% mark of the decline from last week’s high. For further downward movement, the pair must break through the 0.7938–0.7947 area and last week’s low. The short video below provides insights into the technical factors impacting this currency pair, offering additional learning opportunities.

Sellers Are Favored

Currently, sellers hold the advantage, but they haven’t secured a clear win yet. Derivative traders should consider the resistance around 0.7994 as a potential ceiling for selling call options or opening bearish positions. The key question is whether the pair can break the support between 0.7938 and 0.7947. Recent pressure downwards is backed by fundamental data released today, September 10, 2025. The U.S. Producer Price Index for August unexpectedly dropped by 0.1%, contrasting with forecasts of a 0.2% increase. This signals weaker inflation, which reduces the urgency for the Federal Reserve to pursue aggressive monetary policy. This softer inflation report has shifted market expectations ahead of the Fed meeting on September 17, 2025. Fed funds futures now suggest a 75% chance that the central bank will keep rates stable, a significant rise from the 50% chance just a week ago. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is closely monitoring inflation, which stood at 1.9% in August 2025. The divergence in policies—potentially steady rates from the Fed and a firm stance from the SNB—supports our view of a weaker USDCHF. We believe the current macro environment favors a continued bearish outlook for the pair. In the coming weeks, buying put options with a strike price below 0.7930 could be a low-risk way to profit from a potential downturn. Traders should consider a clean break and close below the 0.7938 support level as a cue to open new short positions. The volatility suggests being cautious with any positions until a clear trend emerges. Historically, a similar technical and fundamental situation occurred in the first quarter of 2024. After U.S. economic data weakened, the USDCHF broke a crucial support level and fell over 250 pips in the following month. This past performance indicates that breaking current support could lead to a sustained downward trend. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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