The USDCHF currency pair continues to decline after significant drops caused by hopes for peace in the Middle East, expectations of lower interest rates, and dovish comments from FOMC’s Bowman. The downward trend continued following the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. The pair has fallen below last week’s low of 0.8088, bringing the June low of 0.80554 into focus. The April low, which is the lowest point of the year at 0.80386, is very important for traders. If this level breaks, it would be the lowest for the pair since 2011. Sellers are driving the USDCHF down toward these key levels. So far, the optimism around reducing tensions in the Middle East, combined with expectations of a softer U.S. monetary policy, has put pressure on the USDCHF pair. Bowman’s comments suggesting a cautious approach to interest rate hikes have added to this pressure. The recent ceasefire announcement further boosted risk-taking sentiment, leading to a shift away from safe currencies like the Swiss franc. The drop below 0.8088 has confirmed the bearish trend, and attention is now on the next important levels: 0.80554 and 0.80386. These levels are historically significant because breaking below them would show the strength of the trend. Volatility is likely to remain high, which may cause erratic price movements around these technical levels. When a price breaks below a long-standing support level, traders with leverage often reevaluate their positions quickly, causing large shifts in volume. As the pair approaches a multi-year low, any break should be handled cautiously, especially since liquidity may decrease during quieter trading periods. At this point, focusing on clear technicals is essential. A sustained move below the annual low would compel us to consider the broader trend, not just immediate market sentiment. If the price continues to drop with momentum, it opens the door to levels not seen in over a decade. Monitoring how the price behaves around these previous lows—whether it bounces back, hesitates, or breaks through—will help gauge the strength of the position. One thing to note is that the decline is steady, not erratic. It is moving consistently lower without much resistance at earlier highs. This trend suggests we should keep our focus on lower support levels and their reactions. Observing short-term pullbacks and failed rallies is beneficial. Each unsuccessful rally indicates that sellers are becoming more aggressive, and buyers are hesitating. This shift shows that control has moved away from buyers for now. In the upcoming sessions, any rebound should be assessed on whether it can reach back to 0.8088. If rallies stall well before that point, it is a significant signal. Look for lower closing prices day after day, as they indicate the persistence of downward momentum. Pay attention to order flow during European trading hours, as these often provide the clearest intraday signals when volume picks up. Our focus is not on predicting outcomes but on measuring trends. When key levels are clear, our responses can be more structured. Let’s stay focused on these chart levels and adjust our strategy based on their behavior. The rest is just background noise.

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