The AUDUSD has dropped below important support levels, such as the 200-bar moving average (MA) on the 4-hour chart, a rising trend line, and last week’s low. Though this led to new weekly lows, the decline didn’t last long. The price has since rebounded and is now testing the 100-bar MA around 0.6490. While it has risen above the 100-bar MA, the upward momentum is still weak. If it stays above this level, it might reach the year’s highs again. However, failing to hold could result in a decline toward the 200-hour MA and trend line targets.

Current Key Support Levels

The key support levels right now are the 200-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at about 0.6464, the trend line at 0.6458, and the day’s low at 0.6445. Resistance levels are at the 100-bar MA around 0.6490 and an upper swing area between 0.6534 and 0.6553. After previous failed attempts to drop further, buyers seem to be regaining control, but future movement will depend on how they react to the moving averages. This analysis highlights a brief drop below key technical supports for the AUD/USD, including the 200-bar moving average, the trend line, and last week’s low. The failure to hold below these levels indicates weak selling pressure. After the price touch-down, buyers stepped in, leading to a recovery toward the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart. This level, around 0.6490, is now crucial. It has shifted from a reference point to a temporary pivot where direction may change depending on upcoming events. Although the price has slightly risen above this level, the follow-through has been weak. This lack of momentum suggests buyers are hesitant when they should be ready to act. The aftermath of the dip is important. The bounce-back shows buyers are willing to re-enter the market, but they haven’t pushed hard enough to break through resistance. This places pressure on bullish traders to act or risk losing control again.

Potential Climb and Market Volatility

If the price drops below this average again, it might fall toward the next support levels—the 200-bar MA on the 4-hour chart, the same trend line it fell through earlier, and the recent intraday low. These supports are closely grouped and may attract attention from traders looking for a retreat. On the other hand, a climb toward the 0.6534 to 0.6553 range is also possible. This upper zone has previously limited upward movement, where selling emerged. If the current level holds and buying strengthens, that will be the next test. If prices fail to reclaim this area quickly—within a few days—market sentiment could worsen. We may see increased volatility soon. With prices fluctuating near the moving averages, traders will be attentive to directional signals. It’s important to keep risk minimal near these averages and remember that reactions to these technical markers can be swift and may include false starts, similar to this week’s activity. The dynamics around these boundaries—resistance near 0.6490 and support down toward 0.6445—may provide more insight than momentum readings alone. The market has quickly brushed off recent breaks, suggesting that major players are not firmly aligned in either direction. Range behavior is likely to continue unless there’s a shift. For now, the focus should be less on chasing breakouts and more on responding to whether critical levels begin to falter. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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