Silver (XAG/USD) gave back part of its gains on Thursday amid Middle East headlines that increased market swings. It was trading near $79.62 after reaching about $82.00, and was still up almost 3% on the day.
Iran introduced new rules for ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz, CNN reported. The strait handles 20% of global oil flows.
Market Impact And Silver Reaction
Ongoing tension around the strait has kept oil prices high, adding to inflation worries and supporting hawkish central bank expectations. This has limited further rises in silver.
At the same time, reports of possible US–Iran talks to end the war have supported silver in the near term. Technical signals also point to a positive bias.
On the daily chart, price remains above the 20-day SMA Bollinger middle band at $76.32 and is moving towards the upper band near $81.43. RSI (14) is 57, while ADX (14) is about 12.76.
Resistance is at $81.43, while support sits at $76.32 and then near the lower band around $71.21. The technical analysis was produced with help from an AI tool.
Trading Strategies In A Volatile Range
We are seeing a classic tug-of-war in silver, with geopolitical risks creating daily volatility. The new rules in the Strait of Hormuz, which recent satellite data from last week confirmed has slowed tanker traffic by nearly 15%, are keeping oil prices firm. This supports the idea that central banks will remain hesitant to cut interest rates.
However, whispers of a potential US-Iran diplomatic channel are providing a floor for prices, creating a range we can trade. The technical picture supports this cautious optimism, with silver holding firmly above the $76.32 support level. A decisive break above the $81.43 resistance is what we are watching for a sign of a stronger trend.
Given the high uncertainty, we believe long volatility strategies are prudent for the coming weeks. Traders could consider buying straddles or strangles to capitalize on a significant price swing, whether it’s a breakout on a peace deal or a sharp drop if talks fail. This approach isolates the trade from having to guess the correct direction of the next major move.
For those with a more bullish bias, selling out-of-the-money put credit spreads with a lower strike below the key $76.32 support level could be effective. This strategy collects premium while defining risk, banking on the idea that silver will not collapse while the diplomatic process plays out. This reminds us of the range-bound conditions we navigated in late 2024, where implied volatility was high but the price found a solid floor.
The backdrop for all of this remains sticky inflation, with last month’s Core PCE data for April 2026 coming in at 3.1%, keeping the Fed on notice. Commitment of Traders data from this past Tuesday shows that while large speculators remain net-long, they have trimmed their positions slightly. This suggests even the bulls are proceeding with caution until we get more clarity.
