Silver (XAG/USD) is under pressure for the third consecutive day. This follows President Trump’s two-week delay in deciding on the U.S. stance regarding the Iran-Israel situation. This pause has decreased the geopolitical risk that had previously driven up safe-haven demand for metals. As a result, traders are reevaluating their positions. Currently, silver is trading around $36.00 in the U.S. market. It has rebounded from a low of $35.51 and is finding support near its 100-period moving average on the 4-hour chart. However, the metal shows signs of weakness in its recent uptrend, slipping below its rising channel. This suggests a possible further pullback. Silver is still above the 100-period moving average at about $35.65, which acts as support. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a bearish divergence, and the Rate of Change (ROC) is negative, both confirming a loss of upward momentum. This opens the door for a more significant correction. For silver to regain upward momentum, it must break decisively above $36.50, targeting resistance at $37.00 to $37.30. Conversely, if it fails to stay above the 100-period MA and drops below $35.50, selling pressure may increase, aiming for support levels at $35.00 and $34.50. As we enter a new trading week, silver’s decline indicates more than just a pause; it’s a sign of easing emotional risk factors that previously drove up prices. The decreased demand for safe-haven assets follows a significant political delay that has briefly calmed rising tensions in the Middle East. This means there is less urgency for traditional safe havens like metals, a common reaction when global risks are reassessed. Silver’s inability to maintain gains above $36.50 will be closely observed in the upcoming sessions. The metal has broken its short-term rising channel, a support structure for bulls during earlier gains. While this break doesn’t determine the trend’s fate, it shows that buying momentum has weakened recently. Indicators are not promising. The RSI’s divergence from recent price highs suggests caution. When asset prices rise but the RSI weakens, there is a higher chance of a downward shift. Furthermore, the ROC being negative indicates that the pace of upward movement has slowed and is starting to reverse. Immediate support is around $35.65, aligning with the 100-period moving average on the four-hour chart. This level held during the initial selling wave, but if it fails again, it might not withstand another test. If prices dip below $35.50 and struggle to reclaim it quickly, we should prepare for a possible drop to $35.00 or even $34.50, especially if external risk sentiment stabilizes. On the other hand, reclaiming $36.50 decisively would challenge the idea that silver is losing strength. To achieve this, strong buying interest must persist through the New York and Asian sessions, not just appear briefly. Traders should look for increased volume and confirmation from broader commodity indices or ETF flows before deciding on market direction. From our perspective, any short-vulnerability must be managed carefully, especially because silver is highly reactive to sudden geopolitical changes. Currently, the path of least resistance leans toward a lower price unless new catalysts emerge to reignite demand for safe-haven assets or significantly alter U.S. dollar dynamics. In deciding our strategy, we prefer to focus on price movements around $35.65 and $36.50 rather than expecting sharp market shifts. Here, patience will be more valuable than aggression, particularly as markets process the implications of the recent political pause across various asset classes.

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