Silver rose in the North American session and printed a bullish harami pattern. XAG/USD was $75.85 at the time of writing, up more than 3%.
The broader structure remains upward, but resistance levels are nearby. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still bearish, though it is close to turning higher.
Confirmation And Key Resistance Levels
The pattern needs confirmation via a move above the 19 May daily high of $78.88. A break there brings $80.00 into view, then the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $81.05.
If price falls below the 19 May daily low of $73.09, it may target the 29 April daily low of $70.86. Below that sits the $70.00 level.
Silver is traded as a precious metal and can be held as coins or bars, or via Exchange Traded Funds that track its price. Prices can react to geopolitics, recession concerns, interest rates, the US Dollar, demand, mining supply and recycling.
Industrial use in electronics and solar can influence demand, supported by activity in the US, China and India, including jewellery buying in India. Silver often tracks gold, and the Gold/Silver ratio compares their relative valuations.
Comparing Current Setup With 2025
We are looking at a similar, yet more defined, upward bias in silver compared to what we saw around this time in May of 2025. Last year, the market formed a ‘bullish harami’ pattern that hinted at a push higher, which ultimately tested but failed to decisively break the $80 level. Now, with a year of consolidation, the technical structure appears stronger for a potential breakout.
Industrial demand provides a much stronger fundamental floor for prices than it did in 2025. Recent data from the Silver Institute shows global industrial consumption hit a record 654.4 million ounces, largely driven by the expanding solar and electric vehicle sectors. This consistent demand suggests that dips are likely to be shallower and bought more quickly.
The outlook for the US Dollar is also more favorable for silver now. Last year we were still debating the Federal Reserve’s terminal rate, but now the market is pricing in a steady policy, causing the US Dollar Index (DXY) to trade in a tight range around 98.5. A weaker dollar makes silver cheaper for foreign buyers and increases its appeal as an alternative store of value.
The Gold/Silver ratio continues to be a key indicator for us, currently sitting at an elevated 84:1. While this is slightly lower than the peaks we saw in 2025, it remains well above the historical average, suggesting silver is still undervalued relative to gold. This spread implies that silver has more potential upside to catch up if a precious metals rally gains momentum.
For derivative traders, this environment suggests positioning for a move above the long-standing $80 resistance. Buying call options with strike prices at $80 or $81 could provide leveraged exposure with a defined risk. A bull call spread could also be an effective strategy to reduce the initial cost while aiming for a sustained move toward the $85 mark in the coming weeks.
However, we must watch the support levels that were critical in 2025, particularly around the $73 mark. A decisive break below this level could invalidate the current bullish setup and signal a drop towards the $70 psychological support. Therefore, any long positions should be managed with stop-losses to protect against a sudden reversal in sentiment.
