The EUR/HUF currency pair is dropping steadily, approaching the support zone between 383 and 382. Analysts at Société Générale have noted that the pair is struggling to break above the moving average after falling below the 50-day moving average in May. The movement toward 383/382 could offer temporary support, possibly leading to a rebound. However, to confirm a longer-term upward trend, the pair needs to overcome the 50-day moving average near 390.

Fxstreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team gathers market notes from multiple experts to provide valuable insights. The goal is to give readers comprehensive financial coverage through various publications, including market updates and the Orange Juice Newsletter. The information on FXStreet’s site is meant for informational purposes only and does not serve as a recommendation for financial transactions. The site is not responsible for any errors, omissions, or potential financial losses. It highlights the significant risks of investing in open markets and advises thorough personal research before making decisions. We are observing the EUR/HUF pair as it continues to decline, nearing a crucial support zone between 383 and 382. This downtrend has been ongoing since the pair fell below its 50-day moving average in May 2025, with repeated failure to recover that level. Recent data from October 2025 indicates that Hungarian inflation is easing to 4.1%. This has led the Hungarian National Bank to suggest it is close to ending its rate-cutting cycle, unlike the European Central Bank, which is dealing with a slow Eurozone economy.

Monetary Policy Divergence

Recently, the Eurozone’s preliminary manufacturing PMI was disappointing at 48.2, indicating ongoing contraction and putting pressure on the ECB to adopt a dovish stance. This divergence in monetary policies—between the hawkish Hungarian National Bank and the dovish ECB—mainly drives the falling EUR/HUF. It’s similar to what we saw in late 2023 when a significant interest rate gap favored the forint. Over the next few weeks, we should prepare for a test of the 383/382 support zone. If the pair breaks below this level, we could see a sharper decline, making put options with a strike price around 380 an appealing strategy. This would allow us to benefit from further downward movement while limiting potential losses if the support holds. However, if the 383/382 zone holds and a rebound occurs, we should be cautious. A true reversal would require the pair to rise above the 50-day moving average, currently around 390. We wouldn’t consider long positions, like buying call options, unless the pair decisively breaks through that 390 level. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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