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    Société Générale’s FX analysts note that USD/BRL stabilizes near its September low of 5.27

    by VT Markets
    /
    Dec 4, 2025
    USD/BRL is currently stable, hovering close to its September low of 5.27. Momentum indicators show that the decline is slowing down, but there’s no clear sign of a strong recovery yet. To signal a short-term uptrend, the pair needs to rise above the recent high of 5.43. If the support level at 5.27 breaks, the pair could drop further to between 5.20 and 5.18, potentially reaching 5.10.

    Consolidation Phase

    The USD/BRL pair is consolidating after hitting a low of 5.27 in September. Although momentum indicators suggest that the downward trend is easing, the price has yet to bounce significantly. This creates an important decision point for the upcoming weeks. Traders should pay attention to the 5.43 level as it is vital for any bullish plans. Additionally, the recent November inflation report from IBGE came in slightly higher than expected at 4.1%, which may support a stronger Real. This fundamental pressure could push the pair below the 5.27 support. We also remember the notable swings in emerging market currencies during the US Federal Reserve’s tightening phase in 2022-2023. A hawkish stance from the Fed in the December meeting could easily lead to a break above 5.43. Thus, the pair is currently sensitive to both local and international policy changes.

    Long Straddle Strategy

    Given this cautious setup, buying a long straddle with a January 2026 expiration could be a smart move to benefit from a breakout in either direction. If you expect a downturn, purchasing put options with a strike price near 5.25 would allow you to target the 5.18 level with limited risk. On the other hand, call options with a strike above 5.43 could be used to prepare for a short-term surge. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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