South Africa’s trade balance rose to 21.76 billion rand in September, up from 3.97 billion rand. This indicates a shift in the country’s trade patterns. The EUR/USD pair dropped to two-month lows near 1.1520, marking three days of decline. Eurozone data revealed that annual HICP inflation fell to 2.1% in October, which met expectations.

GBP and USD Dynamics

The GBP/USD pair fell below 1.3100, reaching new six-month lows. The currency is under pressure as the US Dollar gains strength, influenced by Fed Chair Powell’s comments and ongoing fiscal issues in the UK. Gold prices fell below $4,000 per troy ounce, reversing Thursday’s gains. Market focus is on upcoming remarks from Fed officials and improving US–China relations. In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin and other major altcoins are trying to recover after four days of losses, with Bitcoin bouncing back above $110,000. Ethereum and Ripple are also showing signs of recovery. Looking ahead, risk sentiment may face hurdles due to upcoming statements from the Fed, US Supreme Court rulings, and US economic reports. Meanwhile, the 17th anniversary of the Bitcoin whitepaper highlights Bitcoin’s journey from a digital cash idea to a significant financial asset.

Trade Balance and Commodities

The significant increase in South Africa’s trade balance to 21.76 billion rand is a strong positive sign for the rand. This surplus reflects strong global demand for platinum group metals and coal throughout 2025, with commodity prices remaining surprisingly resilient. Traders should consider betting on further ZAR strength against the dollar as this trend may persist into the last quarter. The Federal Reserve’s recent commentary is still hawkish, providing strong support for the US dollar. With US inflation hovering around 3.1% in the third quarter of 2025, the market has largely eliminated the chances of further rate cuts this year. This ongoing tension in policy enhances strategies favoring the dollar, especially against softer currencies like the Euro and Pound. Gold’s inability to maintain the $4,000 level suggests traders may be reconsidering holding a non-yielding asset amid high interest rates. Although gold’s rise from under $2,500 in early 2024 was impressive, the strength of the dollar presents challenges. There is potential for more downside, prompting traders to consider buying puts or setting up bearish spreads for protection. Bitcoin’s rebound from its 200-day moving average indicates strong demand around the $110,000 level. The recent consolidation since the post-halving peak in early 2025 seems stable, shaking out short-term speculators. For those trading derivatives, this sharp recovery offers a chance to capitalize on short-term market swings using options, particularly at these technical support levels. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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